How much is the US willing to risk for the Strait of Hormuz?

How much is the US willing to risk for the Strait of Hormuz?

Posted on : 2026-03-12 17:04 KST Modified on : 2026-03-12 17:04 KST
The potential for a full-blown war in the shipping bottleneck has never been higher
An oil tanker sits off the coast of Muscat in the Gulf of Oman on March 10, 2026, as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to ships amid the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran. (Reuters/Yonhap)
An oil tanker sits off the coast of Muscat in the Gulf of Oman on March 10, 2026, as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to ships amid the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran. (Reuters/Yonhap)

Never before has the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for the global oil trade, been so throttled. Iran’s determination to ensure the survival of its regime by controlling the strait is colliding with the US’ push to bring Tehran to its knees, fueling fears of a major military confrontation.
 
Conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz peaked on April 14, 1988, when the US Navy’s frigate USS Samuel B. Roberts nearly sank after striking an Iranian mine. Four days later, on April 18, the US Navy launched Operation Praying Mantis, a mission that sought to seek revenge on Iranian naval targets. 
 
The attack sank two Iranian oil platforms, two frigates, and several fast-attack craft and a number of armed boats. The US claimed that the operation, said to be the biggest naval operation since World War II, destroyed half of Iran’s operational naval forces.
 
This battle, however, took place outside of the Strait of Hormuz’s bottleneck, and only lasted for a day. While the region was on a knife-edge, the strait remained open.
 
While the flow of merchant ships was heavily reduced during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) as both nations attacked each other’s tankers, a blockade was not imposed on the strait. The strait remained open as oil sales via the strait were crucial for both countries’ war efforts and national financial situations. 
 
Forty years have passed, and the war triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iran has created the unprecedented crisis of a potential full-scale war in the Hormuz bottleneck. Iran, pushed to the brink of regime collapse, has moved to close the strait despite its economic toll and international condemnation.
 
The situation could reach a tipping point once US naval forces, including aircraft carriers currently deployed in the eastern Mediterranean and Arabian Sea, enter the Strait of Hormuz. To Iran, which has lost its supreme leader and suffered over 10 days of US-Israeli airstrikes, defending the Strait of Hormuz has become tantamount to survival; as such, it is preparing to strike back.
 
Iran is expected to mobilize asymmetric warfare tactics optimized for the strait’s narrow terrain, employing not only mines but also anti-ship missiles, suicide drones, numerous fast-attack crafts, and small submarines. If Iran announces it has laid mines, the US must deploy minesweepers to clear them — operations that will make them highly vulnerable to enemy attack.
 
If the US has any hope of defeating Iran’s military forces and taking control of the strait, it will likely need to wage a prolonged, large-scale naval and air campaign and be prepared for significant casualties. In this case, the Strait of Hormuz may be closed even longer. 

By Jung E-gil, staff reporter

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