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A normally bustling area of Seoul is empty on Dec. 13. (Baek So-ah, staff photographer)

The explosive increase in new COVID-19 cases in Korea continued with a total of 1,030 on Dec. 13. This is the highest figure recorded since South Korea reported its first case on Jan. 20, and greatly exceeds the first wave in February and March across Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province. While some are recommending elevating social distancing measures to Level 3, the Korean government plans to use this only as a last resort in light of the social and economic damage that would ensue. Instead, the government is moving to secure an extra 10,000 hospital beds under the assumption of 1,000 cases per day over the next 20 days.

The Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters (CDSCH) stated that as of Dec. 13, Korea had 1,002 new domestic transmissions and 28 cases stemming from overseas. The rate of increase is very steep: the daily caseload exceeded 600 for several days before jumping to 950 on Dec. 12 and then surpassing 1,000 the next day. Until that point, the daily caseload had never exceeded 1,000. The highest numbers recorded during the first and second waves were 909 (Feb. 29) and 441 (Aug. 27), respectively.

Experts believe that the current wave could become larger in scale and more prolonged than the first two. This is because people continue to become infected while going about their daily lives, and there has been a series of mass outbreaks in churches and nursing homes. More than 70% of new transmissions have taken place in the Seoul Capital Area (SCA), which has a high population density. Social distancing measures have been raised from Level 1.5 to Level 2 and then to Level 2+α (alpha), but they have failed to have much of an impact. People spending more time indoors during winter is also exacerbating the pandemic’s spread.

“We predict that the numbers will remain [above 900] for the time being,” disease prevention authorities stated in a briefing on Dec. 13.

The government is scrambling to respond. President Moon Jae-in presided over meetings on emergency countermeasures on Dec. 12 and 13. “Based on cooperation from the public, we must make a concentrated response in a short period of time to swiftly stabilize the COVID-19 situation,” the president said. “Raising social distancing to Level 3 is a last resort. I ask you to thoroughly prepare for that eventuality, and act decisively if you determine that there is no other choice.”

The criteria for implementing Level 3 include the daily caseload amounting to 800-1000 for a week straight or when there is more than a twofold increase during a period of Level 2.5 distancing.

On Dec. 13, the government also announced its “emergency medical response” for the SCA, which includes measures to secure an additional 7,542 beds consisting of 4,905 in community treatment centers, 2,260 in dedicated COVID-19 hospitals and 287 in intensive care wards. Ten thousand new hospital beds will be required over the next 20 days based on the assumption of 1,000 new cases and 500 people released from quarantine each day. In terms of classification by severity, 7,000 (70%) of the beds required are for those with mild symptoms, with 2,700 (27%) for those with moderate symptoms or in high-risk groups, and 300 (3%) for severe cases.

The government has also decided to bring in around 1,900 additional medical personnel to help in the fight against COVID-19. In addition to 203 from public health and 77 army surgeons, this includes around 550 doctors from the Korea Medical Association and 493 nurses from the Korean Nurses Association.

Facing a rapid spread of the contagion, municipal governments are moving quickly as well. Gyeonggi Province has implemented emergency mobilization measures to secure university dorms within the province for use as community treatment centers. Seoul will also obtain 1,008 beds this week at community treatment centers run by 13 districts. As the third wave intensifies, the Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education and the Gyeonggi Province Office of Education announced on Dec. 13 that all in-person classes at kindergartens and elementary schools will be suspended from Dec. 15 until the end of the year, expanding on the order originally issued to middle schools and high schools. It appears that schools are preemptively implementing measures that would apply under Level 3 measures.

By Suh Hye-mi, Park Tae-woo and Choi Won-hyung, staff reporters, and Hong Yong-duk, South Gyeonggi correspondent

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