hankyoreh

A movie theater in Seoul restricts its capacity to obey social distancing measures on Dec. 7. (Yonhap News)

South Korea’s disease control authorities predict that South Korea’s daily caseload will exceed 900 next week unless they can suppress the current outbreak, which is concentrated in the Seoul Capital Area (SCA). As upgraded social distancing measures have had a limited impact, experts say the current wave of COVID-19 could last until next February.

The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) reported 615 new cases on Dec. 7. That figure included 580 cases of community transmission and 35 cases imported from overseas. Of the new cases, 422 occurred in the SCA, marking the fifth consecutive day of Greater Seoul seeing more than 400 cases.

“Greater Seoul has already become a COVID-19 battleground. We’re currently facing a general crisis, and it’s difficult to gauge when the third wave will reach its peak” said Health Minister Park Neung-hoo, during a disease response meeting on Monday.

“We predict that, if the current trend continues, there will be 550-750 daily cases this week, and there could be more than 900 daily cases next week,” said Na Seong-woong, a senior KDCA official, during the daily briefing on Monday.

A series of transmission clusters have been reported at hospitals and nursing homes at which elderly people, a high-risk group for COVID-19, are crowded together. On Monday, 76 people tested positive at a nursing home in the Nam (South) District of Ulsan, bringing the cumulative number of cases in the cluster to 92.

Gwak Jin, head of patient management at the KDCA, addressed the nursing home cluster. “We confirmed that the hospital rooms were crowded because of a lack of space and that the staff were lax in wearing masks and ventilating the facility.”

A total of 18 people have tested positive at a care home in the city of Goyang, Gyeonggi Province, following the first positive test on Dec. 5. Four more cases were reported in a cluster at another care home in Goyang, with a total of 31 cases identified there so far.

Eighteen people have been infected at an ear, nose and throat clinic in Seoul’s Seongdong District, following the first positive test there on Nov. 28. Meanwhile, 17 more people tested positive at a hospital in the Dongdaemun District, raising the cumulative number of cases there to 42.

One student who took the College Scholastic Ability Test (CSAT) in Seoul on Dec. 3 has tested positive, the Hankyoreh has confirmed. After the CSAT, a family member living with the student tested positive, prompting the student to submit a sample for testing. The student’s test came back positive as well on Dec. 6.

Seoul said it would administer COVID-19 tests to 23 students who took the CSAT in the same room and nine people who proctored the exam.

More infections have also been traced back to Itaewon, in Seoul, which was the site of a cluster back in May. As of Dec. 6, 11 cases have occurred at “game pubs,” where people play poker over drinks.

These patients reportedly visited a number of establishments in Itaewon between Nov. 26 and Dec. 4, including Western Lounge, Two Pair, Dice, Gentle Rabbit, and KMGM. Authorities are carrying out tests on 379 people who appear on digital visitor logs.

While the government has decided to tighten social distancing to Level 2.5 in the SCA and to Level 2 for the rest of the country as of Dec. 8, experts have predicted that the measures will be less effective than in the past.

“The government said it will lower [the number of daily cases] to 150-200 by the end of the year, but [the impact of the third wave] will likely last until the beginning of next year,” said Jung Jae-hun, a professor of preventive medicine at the Gachon University medical school.

“Infections with the coronavirus and other respiratory viruses will peak in February in the Northern Hemisphere. This outbreak could drag on until February,” predicted Choe Yeong-jun, a professor of social medicine at the medical school at Hallym University Sacred Heart Hospital.

“The coronavirus is easy to pass on because there are so many asymptomatic carriers. That means [the third wave] could last for two or three months unless really tough controls are imposed,” said Kim Dong-hyeon, a professor of social medicine at the same medical school.

By Suh Hye-mi, Park Tae-woo and Choi Ha-yan, staff reporters

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