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South Korean President Moon Jae-in

South Korean President Moon Jae-in is facing a “death cross” in approval ratings, with negative assessments outnumbering positive ones.

On July 13-15, the polling institution Real Meter surveyed 1,510 adults nationwide (95% confidence level, margin of error ±2.5 percentage points). A comparison with a survey conducted last week showed positive assessments of Moon’s governance down 4.6 percentage points to 44.1%, with negative assessments up 5.2 percentage points to 51.7%, it announced on July 16. The change appeared to reflect factors including the death of Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon and the sexual harassment allegations against him, as well as a series of intensive real estate measure announcements.

With a margin of 7.6 percentage points separating the positive and negative ratings, this marked the first time negative ratings surpassed positive ones beyond the margin of error in the 20 weeks since a survey conducted in the fourth week of February -- before the height of the COVID-19 pandemic -- showed 46.1% approval and 50.7% disapproval.

By region, the biggest drop was observed in Seoul, where positive job performance ratings were down by around 6.0 percentage points from 44.3% the week before. In terms of gender and age group, large drops were observed among women (7.9 percentage points) and respondents in their 30s (13.9 percentage points). Among self-identified moderates, positive ratings were down by 6.0 percentage points from the week before. Moderates, Seoul Capital Area (SCA) residents, 30-somethings, and women have all been viewed as some of the most sensitive demographics to real estate issues and the sexual harassment allegations against Park Won-soon.

Approval ratings lowest in 9 months

Positive ratings of Moon’s performance were at their lowest level in nine months, having previously reached 41.4% during the second week of October 2019 when the controversy surrounding former Justice Minister Cho Kuk (whose daughter was accused of being unfairly admitted to medical school) was at its peak. After reaching a low during the Cho Kuk controversy last year, Moon’s approval rating began recovering around late 2019 before dropping once again in February as the COVID-19 outbreak reached full swing. From there, it climbed all the way to the mid-60% range amid early disease control successes and a landslide win for the ruling Democratic Party in the general elections.

But it has faced a sharp reversal since then amid the backlash over scandals involving ruling party politicians, the controversy over Minister of Justice Choo Mi-ae directing an investigation by prosecutors, and public opinion regarding real estate policy measures.

“After reaching a high through the successful disease control system, the momentum has been sapped by various issues having to do with the ruling party,” said Yoon Hee-woong, director of the opinion analysis team for Opinion Live.

“There’s been a doubly negative impact as support has been lost among the people in their 30s and 40s impacted by the real estate policies, and among 20-somethings objecting to the Incheon International Airport Corporation situation [where part-time workers were converted to full-time status without going through the same rigorous screening process as other full-time workers],” he said.

Lee Jun-han, a professor of political science and international relations at Incheon National University, said, “In a sense, the president’s fourth-year approval ratings as he nears the end for his term were shored up for some time by the skill in handling the COVID-19 epidemic.”

“That effect has quickly vanished as numerous unfavorable developments have emerged,” he observed.

Some analysts are predicting that Korean Peninsula issues and the Democratic Party’s convention could help power a future rebound.

“Korean Peninsula issues remain a card that can be played,” Lee suggested.

“The key question is going to be how inter-Korean relations are addressed. There’s also the possibility that the administration and party’s approval ratings could both be boosted as presidential contenders step up and put in a good showing with the Democratic Party convention in August,” he predicted.

More details on the opinion polls can be found at the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website (Korean only): https://www.nesdc.go.kr/portal/main.do.

By Kim Mi-na, staff reporter

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