hankyoreh

A still from a video posted by Ukraine’s Strategic Communications Centre (SPRAVDI) on social media shows what it claims are North Korean soldiers deployed to Russia. (from @StratcomCentre on X/Yonhap)

By Kim Jong-dae, visiting scholar at Yonsei Institute for North Korean Studies 

“For Whom the Bell Tolls,” a 1943 movie featuring Ingrid Bergman, is set during the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939). The war, which was fought between Republicans who had the support of the Soviet Union and Nationalists aided by Germany and Italy, introduced a new kind of warfare by utilizing tanks and aircrafts, the latest developments in weapon technology.
 
The Spanish Civil War was considered a testing ground for World War II as countries were able to showcase the latest technological advances in warfare, which explains the attentiveness shown by strategists in Berlin, Moscow, England and France. This civil war introduced the concept of the “blitzkrieg,” a new evolution of war involving large-scale aerial and maneuver warfare.
 
The war between Ukraine and Russia, a war of attrition that has ground on for three years, is an example of such a war. The American think tank Institute for the Study of War published a report titled “Ukraine and the Problem of Restoring Maneuver in Contemporary War” in which it claimed that the drone strikes and aerial bombs characteristic of the Ukraine war demonstrates that, much like the Spanish Civil War, the war in Ukraine is a prelude to the next great power war.
 
The institute coined a new term — “tactical reconnaissance-strike complex” —  stating how the reconnaissance-strike complex has evolved from functioning at “operational depths” to being utilized for military tactics.
 
Now, even first-person-view combat is possible, with small groups of troops and individuals capable of simultaneously piloting drones and loitering munitions. Both Ukraine and Russia can engage in fine-tuned warfare through a combination of precise reconnaissance data, drones and cruise missiles, glide bombs, and electronic warfare capabilities. If we add abundant aerial assistance and rapid mobility, we can see how future wars in Taiwan and on the Korean Peninsula will unfold.
 
Now that the fog surrounding the uncertainty behind future battlefields has lifted, we can see wars relying heavily on precision and speed, much like medical surgeries, are being carried out by Israel in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.
 
If South Korea were to mimic Israel when launching attacks on North Korea, North Korean skies would be empty within three days, its coasts free of any floating objects within a week, and its land completely barren after 15 days. This kind of warfare would not only cost less but also enable the war to end quickly and without much fuss.
 
However, the results will be drastically different if North Korea proves that it will not, like Hamas or Hezbollah, remain helpless to enemy attacks by obtaining Russia and Ukraine’s tactical reconnaissance-strike complex.
 
North Korea would be able to attack the flank or rear of South Korea’s main forces and cause electrical disruptions to prolong the war. If that becomes possible, the war on the Korean Peninsula will become even more drawn out than the wars in Ukraine or the Middle East, which means that South Korea should brace itself for massive damages and losses. If Russia continues to stand behind North Korea, that only complicates matters, which is why the military cooperation between the two countries is so alarming.
 
What exactly was North Korean leader Kim Jong-un hoping when he deployed North Korean troops to Russia? Even if it would prove to be economically fruitful, he would not have sent the soldiers to become cannon fodder. If the North Korean military were exposed as slipshod and only added to the number of casualties, it would seriously sully Kim’s reputation as a leader. As such, he would not have rushed to dispatch unprepared soldiers to a foreign battleground.
 
North Korea wishes to gain something from the Ukraine war — the ability to infiltrate the enemy to instigate small-scale guerilla warfare, which is also the ability to speedily eliminate threats in the front, bypass hazards and break through to the rear of enemy forces.
 
The Ukraine war will serve as a trigger for the North Korean military to revamp its military technology and knowledge to conduct more subtle, detail-oriented warfare. South Korea is full of spaces that could be perfect for North Korea to conduct irregular warfare.
 
Much like how the strategists of Moscow and Berlin wished to accumulate information through the Spanish Civil War, knowledge on contemporary warfare will become valuable strategic assets for future nuclear weapons and future wars.
 
In this context, it is vital for South Korea that the Ukraine war comes to a speedy halt. We need to nip the chances of North Korea learning too much in the bud. It would be wiser for us to join the US and international society to try to end the war instead of providing lethal weapons to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to prolong his unrealistic hopes of winning this doomed war.
 
However, the Yoon Suk-yeol administration is doing exactly the opposite by wishing to walk down a path that will heighten national security costs. Yoon needs to knock some sense into himself by learning that North Korea, Hamas and Hezbollah are completely different entities.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]