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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visits the country’s State Emergency Epidemic Prevention Headquarters on May 12. (Korean Central Television/Yonhap News)

COVID-19 is spreading rapidly in North Korea. As of Saturday, North Korea had reported a cumulative total of more than 800,000 people with fever, while cumulative deaths were over 40.

Citing information from the state’s emergency disease control authority, North Korean state-run newspaper the Rodong Sinmun said on Sunday that “over 296,180 more persons had fever, more than 252,400 [have] recovered and 15 died from the evening of May 13 to 18:00 [on] May 14 in the country.”

“From late April to 18:00 [on] May 14, the [number of people with fever] totals to over 820,620 [and] the death toll stands at 42,” reported the Rodong Sinmun, the official organ of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK).

Those figures indicate that 3.2 percent of the North Korean population — 25.37 million as of the end of 2020, according to Statistics Korea — were exhibiting a fever just three days after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un acknowledged the North’s first confirmed case of COVID-19 on May 12. Kim said during a Politburo meeting that an individual had been infected with the Omicron variant of the coronavirus.

It’s very likely that North Korea’s current wave of COVID-19 was sparked by large-scale political events held in Pyongyang in mid- and late April, including the military parade on the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Revolutionary Army. Tens of thousands of people from 72 military units in the northern part of the country were brought to Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang on April 25 for the parade.

Kim Jong-un has touted North Korea’s freedom from COVID-19 for more than two years — since he closed the national borders at the end of January 2020 — as one of his signature accomplishments. In effect, this outbreak poses a major test to his capacity for crisis management.

The wave of COVID-19 is evident even in the rough figures that have been published so far by North Korea’s State Emergency Epidemic Prevention Headquarters. The cumulative total of cases of fever is 820,620 (350,000 from late April to May 11; 18,000 on May 12; 174,400 on May 13; and 296,180 on May 14), and the total death tally is 42 (6 from late April to May 12; 21 on May 13; and 15 on May 14).

The number of North Koreans who have been quarantined for treatment has been rising as well (187,800 from late April to May 12; 280,810 on May 13; and 324,550 on May 14). That said, the number of people reporting a fever spiked by 870 percent between May 12 and May 13, but the rate of increase slowed to 70 percent between May 13 and May 14.

Those figures appear to be the grounds for Kim’s remarks during the meeting of the WPK Central Committee Politburo on Saturday that “the current situation is not an uncontrollable spread among regions but the spread within [locked-down] areas and relevant units” and that most cases of the disease have exhibited “smooth progress.”

The big question is how accurately North Korea’s government statistics reflect the reality on the ground. The number of people with fevers and the number of deaths in the figures released there oscillate wildly.

Significantly, North Korea hasn’t released any figures about the number of confirmed cases or the positivity rate. Experts believe that’s not because the authorities are deliberately trying to conceal those figures, but because of a shortage of materials and equipment for running PCR tests.

So far, North Korea has only announced one confirmed case of COVID-19 — the person who died of the Omicron variant. That’s led to concerns that the North Korean disease control authorities aren’t able to accurately assess the situation or make an appropriate response.

North Korea is far behind the global average in terms of its health care system. During earlier global outbreaks of infectious diseases, such as SARS, Pyongyang has generally responded by closing its borders.

Furthermore, North Koreans have low levels of nutrition. Preventing COVID-19 from spreading would certainly require an influx of vaccines and medical supplies from the outside world, epidemiologists say.

Nonetheless, Kim is actually poised to keep the country sealed off while rejecting vaccinations, remarking that “a politics that prioritizes the people and the masses and the unified strength of the people provide the strongest guarantee that we will prevail in our epidemic prevention campaign.”

Over the weekend, the Rodong Sinmun outlined folk remedies such as eating honey when you have a cough, avoiding coffee, and brewing a willow leaf infusion, while stating that Kim had handed over his personal supply of medicine to the party headquarters.

The newspaper reported on Sunday that 1.35 million people had been examined or treated so far and that the authorities were making a point of quarantining everyone with fevers or other unusual symptoms for treatment.

Also notably, Kim emphasized that “it is good to actively learn from the advanced and rich anti-epidemic successes and experience already gained by the Chinese party and people in the struggle against [the] malicious epidemic” in the meeting of the WPK Politburo on Saturday.

Kim’s remarks suggest that he intends to model his approach upon China’s “zero-COVID” policy, which focuses on shutting down and quarantining specific areas, as in Shanghai, while retaining the option of asking the Chinese government for assistance.

On Thursday and Friday, Zhao Lijian, spokesperson of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that China was always prepared to fully assist North Korea in combating COVID-19 and pledged to provide help and assistance if asked to do so. It’s thought that if North Korea does ask for help, it’s more likely to turn to the Chinese government than the South Korean government under President Yoon Suk-yeol.

By Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]