hankyoreh

President Yoon Suk-yeol appears at a hearing in his impeachment trial on Feb. 11, 2025, at the Constitutional Court of Korea in Seoul. (pool photo)

“History repeats itself. The first time as tragedy, the second time as farce,” so the quote attributed to Karl Marx goes.
 
Isn’t it baffling? Eight years ago, we impeached President Park Geun-hye and held an early presidential election. Moon Jae-in, who had lost to Park in the previous election, came out victorious.
 
We will soon see ourselves facing yet another early presidential election following President Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment and removal from office. In that election, Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, will probably make a comeback from his last election loss to Yoon — an outcome that, depending on where one stands on the political spectrum, will feel like a tragedy or a farce.
 
“History repeats itself” seems to be a proposition difficult to dismiss. Even the timeline of the impeachments bears eerie similarities to one another: the passing of the impeachment bill in December, the court ruling removing the president in March, an early presidential election in May and the following inauguration of a president without an administration transition period.
 
As the old saying goes, new knowledge can be gained by reviewing the old. Looking back on 2017, we can begin to get a picture of what will happen in 2025.
 
1. Downfall
 
In December 2012, Park narrowly won the presidential election by 3.53 percentage points. It was an incredibly close call. On April 16, 2014, the Sewol Ferry sank. The disastrous handling of the tragedy triggered the demise of Park’s administration. Despite the uproar, the results of the June 4, 2014, local elections seemed optimistic for the Saenuri Party, as it secured eight of the 17 mayoral positions up for grabs. Among them were Incheon Mayor Yoo Jeong-bok, Gyeonggi Governor Nam Kyung-pil, and Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong. 

But things went awry during the general election on April 13, 2016. Park had interfered with party nominations. An “authenticator” to determine whether or not a candidate was loyal to Park or not came into the picture. Then there was the incident of Saenuri Party leader Kim Moo-sung refusing to stamp his official seal for a nominee selected by a party nomination committee. As a result of the general election, the Democratic Party took 123 seats in the National Assembly, while Saenuri took 122. 

The speaker of the National Assembly was now a member of the opposition. On Sept. 20, the Hankyoreh reported on the corruption scandal involving Choi Soon-sil, the Mir Foundation, and the K-Sports Foundation. Other outlets offered several follow-up reports. It was the beginning of the end for the Park administration. 

President Yoon Suk-yeol was elected by a margin of 0.73 percentage points on March 9, 2022. He won by the skin of his teeth. In the general election on June 1 of that year, however, his party proved victorious. Among 17 mayoral and gubernatorial seats, the People Power Party (PPP) took 12. Oh Se-hoon was elected mayor of Seoul, and Yoo Jeong-bok was elected governor of Gyeonggi Province. The PPP also took Daejeon, South Chungcheong Province, and North Chungcheong Province. 

The Itaewon crowd crush tragedy occurred in October 2022. The dismal response was a herald of the fall of the Yoon administration. From the very beginning, first lady Kim Keon-hee was Yoon’s Achilles’ heel. There was a constant hum of background noise about the lackadaisical investigation into her Deutsch Motors case, her acceptance of a luxury handbag, and her alleged interference in party nominations.

And so things went awry during the general election on April 10, 2024. Yoon’s infamous remark about green onions being affordable at a time of inflation and the scandal involving the appointment of then-Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup as the ambassador to Australia while he was under investigation resulted in a massive victory for the opposition party. The Democratic Party walked away with 175 National Assembly seats, while the PPP came away with 108. The Yoon administration was beginning to crumble.  

2. Impeachment

On Oct. 24, 2016, JTBC reported on the incident involving Choi Soon-sil’s tablet PC. The public mood swung violently in favor of Park being impeached. The National Assembly passed an impeachment motion on Dec. 9. Among 300 National Assembly lawmakers, 234 voted in favor and 56 voted in opposition. 

From Jan. 3 to Feb. 27 of the following year, the Constitutional Court conducted 17 hearings. On March 30, 11 days after the final hearing, all eight justices on the bench ruled to remove Park from office. On March 12, Park left the Blue House and went to her home in Seoul’s Samseong neighborhood. 

Prosecutors subpoenaed Park on March 21 and filed for an arrest warrant on March 27. Park was arrested on March 31. Prosecutors’ investigation began after the impeachment trial because of the presidential privilege against prosecution. 

Yoon did not accept the reality of the total defeat the PPP suffered during the general election. On Dec. 3, he vowed to “eradicate pro-North Korea anti-state forces in a single swoop” and declared martial law. He also ordered the arrest of politicians. He ordered for lawmakers to be dragged out of the National Assembly’s main building. It was an insurrection. On Dec. 14, the National Assembly approved an impeachment motion. Out of 300 lawmakers, 204 voted in favor and 85 voted in opposition. 

Yoon was arrested on Jan. 19 on suspicions of masterminding an insurrection. Criminal proceedings began before the impeachment trial because presidential privileges do not apply when it comes to insurrection or treason. The Constitutional Court began its impeachment hearings on Jan. 14. The hearings will conclude on Feb. 25, the day of the 11th hearing. Yoon is expected to give his final statement. There will be no time restriction placed on his statement.  

What will he say? Will he continue to show us the indecent person who denies clear facts and passes off responsibility to his subordinates? Or will he change his demeanor to show a dignified side? Some within the conservative camp, including Cho Gab-je, are calling for Yoon to resign. Is Yoon capable of making such a decision? 

The Constitutional Court will conduct a number of deliberations and reviews before announcing its verdict in mid-March. As of now, Yoon’s removal appears certain. 

3. Primaries

Following Park’s removal from office on March 10, 2017, each political party scrambled to nominate its candidate for the upcoming presidential election. Former party leader Moon Jae-in, South Chungcheong Governor Ahn Hee-jung, Seongnam Mayor Lee Jae-myung, and Goyang Mayor Choi Sung competed for the Democratic nomination. After campaign rallies and rounds of voting in the regions of Honam, Chungcheong, Yeongnam, and the capital region, Moon Jae-in was nominated as the party’s candidate for the presidential race on April 3. 

During its party convention on March 31, the Liberty Korea Party selected South Gyeongsang Governor Hong Joon-pyo as its candidate. Hong’s competitors were lawmaker Kim Jin-tae, former party Supreme Council member Lee In-je, and North Gyeongsang Governor Kim Kwan-yong. March 31 was the day Park was arrested.  

Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, eats lunch with workers at Hyundai Motors’ plant in Asan, South Chungcheong Province, on Feb. 20, 2025. (Yonhap)

The People’s Party nominated Ahn Cheol-soo on April 4. Ahn’s competitors were Sohn Hak-kyu and Park Joo-sun, the second deputy speaker of the National Assembly. The Bareun Party nominated lawmaker Yoo Seong-min as its candidate on March 28. Yoo defeated Gyeonggi Governor Nam Kyung-pil. The Justice Party had already nominated its candidate on Feb. 16, before Park was even impeached. Sim Sang-jung defeated former party spokesperson Kang Sang-gu. 

If Yoon is removed from office, each party will go through its own primary. The Democratic Party, barring any unexpected changes, is going to nominate party leader Lee Jae-myung. There is talk of a primary that involves party “underdogs” Kim Kyoung-soo, Kim Dong-yeon, and Kim Boo-kyum, but the chances of it going through look slim. 

Competition within the PPP includes the likes of Kim Moon-soo, Ahn Cheol-soo, and Hong Joon-pyo. Kim, who is the current labor minister, has publicly opposed Yoon’s impeachment, and is the likely forerunner. It remains to be seen if he can retain his popularity after impeachment. A lot of people are skeptical about Moon’s ability to expand his influence. 

4. Presidential election

As soon as Park was removed from office in 2017, the National Election Commission started accepting registrations for potential presidential candidates. During a provisional Cabinet meeting on March 15, Prime Minister and acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn set the date for the presidential election as May 9.

During pre-election polls, Democratic Party candidate Moon Jae-in continually took the lead. The results of the presidential election revealed that Moon won 41.08% of votes while Hong pulled in 24.03%, Ahn took 21.41%, Yoo took 6.76% and Sim earned 6.17%. 

If Yoon is expelled from office, acting President Choi Sang-mok, who is also the deputy prime minister and finance minister, will determine the date of the presidential election and announce it accordingly. Who will be elected? The polls and figures that will come out as soon as the presidential election is announced will be crucial. That’s because 60 days is too short a period for a major reversal.    

Support for Lee Jae-myung shown in recent polls indicated that the potential PPP candidates are no match. Not only is Lee considered a more suitable candidate, Lee is shown to come out ahead in hypothetical matchups with possible PPP candidates. 

The variable that could change the outcome of the presidential election won’t be found on the side of the Democrats. If PPP candidates don’t go rogue, engage in a single primary and accept the results, and recruit Lee Jun-seok and the Reform Party, they could stage a last-minute comeback. 

In the presidential election on March 9, 2022, Lee Jae-myung received 16,147,738 votes, or 47.83%, the most votes out of any presidential candidate to be defeated. Even if he retains these numbers, he stands a good chance of winning this time around. 

In the 2012 presidential election, Moon Jae-in secured 14,692,632 votes, or 48.02%, but lost. He received fewer votes in 2017, with 13,423,800, or 41.08%, but managed to get elected. This was because of division within the conservatives surrounding Park Geun-hye’s impeachment. What will happen this time around? What do you think, dear reader?

By Seong Han-yong, senior political writer

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]