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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (2nd R), joined by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan (R), speaks while facing Yang Jiechi (2nd L), director of China’s Central Foreign Affairs Commission Office, and Wang Yi (L), China’s foreign minister, at the opening session of US-China talks at the Captain Cook Hotel in Anchorage, Alaska, on March 18. (AP/Yonhap News)

The US and China’s conflict over Taiwan is nearing a dangerous level. China’s displays of force and the US and Taiwan’s cozier ties are ratcheting up tensions and elevating a sense of crisis. Mutual distrust is perceived as a security threat, leading to mutual provocations. These are classical signs of a security dilemma.

China has historically taken two approaches in its Taiwan policy. First, it has employed diplomatic and economic methods to create support for reunification inside Taiwan. Second, it has resorted to shows of force to cow popular support for independence inside Taiwan. When the first approach proves ineffective, it has shifted weight to the second approach.

Since Tsai Ing-wen, a pro-independence figure, became president in 2016, China has concentrated on Taiwan’s diplomatic isolation. Seven countries have severed diplomatic ties with Taipei during Tsai’s presidency, leaving just 15 that still maintain diplomatic relations. Nevertheless, Tsai was reelected in January 2020 in a landslide victory, receiving a record 8.17 million votes.

China’s economic pressure on Taiwan has been similarly ineffective. In August 2019, the Chinese authorities banned individual trips to the island. But Taiwan reported that it had received 11.84 million foreign tourists that year, a 7% increase from the previous year and the highest number on record.

This year, China slapped an unexpected ban on imports of Taiwanese pineapples just when it came time to harvest them at the end of February. Last year, China imported around 40,000 tons of pineapples from Taiwan or 95% of the island’s crop. But China’s import ban triggered a pineapple-buying campaign, and reportedly 48,000 tons were sold in other countries, including Australia and Japan.

According to data provided by Taiwan’s customs authorities, Taiwan’s trade with China last year was worth US$166.02 billion, representing 26.3% of Taiwan’s total trade. But Taiwan only represents 5.6% of China’s trade. That’s why some Chinese have called for an economic “decoupling” from Taiwan.

But there’s a problem with that. While it’s true that China is Taiwan’s biggest export market, China is also highly dependent on high-tech products made in Taiwan.

According to the latest edition of the “Cross-Strait Economic Statistics Monthly,” published by Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, 62.5% of the products that Taiwan exported to Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland in January and February of this year were electric installations, equipment, and parts, including integrated circuits and semiconductors. Those exports were worth US$16.33 billion, representing a 35.3% increase from the same period last year. In short, China can’t quickly cut off economic relations with Taiwan while it remains under US sanctions.

Since diplomatic and economic pressures have had little effect, China has recently cranked up military pressure on Taiwan. It has become commonplace for China to make massive shows of force when American and Taiwanese officials are in contact. For example, the Chinese army, navy and marines held a large-scale integrated amphibious assault exercise in the southeastern province of Fujian, near the Strait of Taiwan, when Alex Azar, then the US Secretary of Health and Human Services, visited Taiwan in August 2020.

The US is also weighing a shift in its Taiwan policy. Since the US normalized relations with mainland China in 1979, the US’s policy toward Taiwan has reflected the principle of “dual deterrence.” That is to say, the US has sought to deter China from taking military action against Taiwan, while also deterring Taiwan from rashly moving toward independence.

The US policy of maintaining the status quo was encapsulated in the Taiwan Relations Act, which Congress enacted shortly after Washington and Beijing established ties.

The actual text of the act doesn’t explicitly state that the US will come to Taiwan’s defense in the event of an invasion by China. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the US won’t get involved.

The US has intended to maintain the status quo through such strategic ambiguity. But China’s rapid growth has changed the balance of power in Taiwan and Northeast Asia more broadly. That’s the context behind Beijing’s increasingly overt attempts to sound out Washington’s intentions.

This is about more than Taiwan, however. American friends and allies in the region who find themselves cornered into a choice between the two sides are eyeing the US’s response. If the US abandons the defense of Taiwan, it could be interpreted as signaling the US’ willingness to hand over regional hegemony to China.

That makes it harder for President Biden — who took office while proclaiming that “the US is back” — to maintain strategic ambiguity about Taiwan.

There’s been nothing ambiguous about the steps taken by the US since a Taiwanese envoy was officially invited to Biden’s presidential inauguration. The US State Department has asked China to call off its provocative shows of force against Taiwan, orchestrated a memorandum of understanding between the US and Taiwanese coast guards, and announced plans to expand contact with the Taiwanese authorities.

As the political situation grows rockier, there are fears that China may be on the verge of invading Taiwan. Three considerations fuel those fears.

First, experts believe that China has already acquired or will soon acquire the ability to achieve reunification by force. Adm. Philip Davidson, outgoing commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, testified before the US Senate in March that there was a possibility of China seizing Taiwan by force within the next six years.

Second, China’s military pressure on Taiwan has greatly intensified in recent months. Since September 2020, China has routinely infringed upon the southwest corner of Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). This month, Chinese aircraft have appeared in Taiwan’s ADIZ in all but five days, as of Sunday.

On April 12, two days before an unofficial American delegation was slated to visit Taiwan, China launched a sortie of 25 military aircraft, including cutting-edge jet fighters and bombers capable of holding nuclear weapons.

A third factor prompting concerns is a sharp turn toward truculence in China’s foreign policy. China has taken aggressive steps in its border region with India and in disputed waters in the South China Sea and has also rammed through a security law and electoral changes in Hong Kong, establishing a solidly pro-Beijing government in the city.

Since the US response to the situation in Hong Kong has been empty words of support and toothless sanctions, some predict that China will turn to Taiwan after it’s finished with Hong Kong. That’s also why there’s growing support in the US for a tougher stance.

The RAND Corporation, a US-based think tank focused on national defense and security, made three proposals in an April 19 report titled “What Deters and Why: The State of Deterrence in Korea and the Taiwan Strait.”

First, the report said, the US should make clear its commitment to defending Taiwan by stationing more troops in the area. Second, the US should emphasize its commitment to safeguarding the security of its friends and allies in the region, including Taiwan. Third, it should take steps to emphasize Taiwan’s strategic importance. In short, the report advocated the need for “strategic clarity.”

The Strategic Competition Act, which cleared the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations on April 21, says that China’s forceful unification with Taiwan would be the first step in China’s campaign for regional hegemony. The bill also emphasizes the importance of defending Taiwan so as to check China’s growing influence.

That’s a sign that the US may be altering a strategic stance it has maintained for more than 40 years. China could take that as a hostile action. As the US and China are drawn into a security dilemma, Taiwan appears to be in danger.

By Jung In-hwan, Beijing correspondent

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]