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Kweon Seong-dong, the floor leader of the People Power Party, speaks at a press conference on Jan. 30, 2025. (Yonhap)

By Hwang Joon-bum, editorial writer

Public opinion polls being carried out in anticipation of yet another early presidential election in Korea showcase two facts. First is the rise in the popularity of Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo. The running joke here is that Kim is probably the most surprised by his rise of anybody, as it seems unthinkable that he — considered the face of the far right as cofounder of the Liberation Unification Party with the pastor Jun Kwang-hoon, his spreading of election fraud theories,  and his scathing remarks about labor unions, civil society and the opposition — is thought to be the ruling party’s presidential frontrunner.
 
Many believe that he will land the People Power Party nomination, but his meteoric rise is significant as an indicator of the fervid support of Yoon Suk-yeol loyalists. It could be argued that Yoon’s attempts to feign ignorance, rally his supporters and completely dismiss South Korea’s investigative and warrant processes are having their desired effects.
 
Second, even though support for Yoon’s impeachment and approval ratings for the Democratic Party have fallen compared to the numbers shown immediately after the Dec. 3 insurrection debacle, support for impeachment and flipping the presidential office remain dominant among centrists. 

For example, in a telephone interview survey conducted on Jan. 23-25 by Ipsos on behalf of SBS, 59% of respondents said that the Constitutional Court should uphold the impeachment charges against Yoon while 37% stated that the charges should be dismissed. Among centrists, 65% supported Yoon’s impeachment while 30% opposed it. 

When asked if the conservatives should stay in power or if the presidential office should be flipped, 43% agreed with the former while 50% stood for the latter, but among centrists, 55% supported a change in ruling party while 36% believed in keeping the PPP in power. (For more information, please check the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission’s website.)
 
Nevertheless, it is still too early to completely dismiss the possibility of a conservative counteroffensive. Yoon and the PPP have not only refused to apologize for the attempted rebellion but have also denied facts related to the incident, rallying and inciting loyal supporters. Their strategy is to act innocent while dismissing and belittling the authority of the opposition party, the media, investigative agencies and the judiciary. Yoon is said to have boasted that it would “probably be possible” for his party to win the presidency again. It is also normal for the gap between the ruling and opposition parties to narrow as presidential candidates are confirmed and the election date approaches.
 
A review of the eight elections since the constitutional reform that brought about Korea’s system of direct elections for president shows how much of an uphill battle the progressive camp’s three victories were. Kim Dae-jung emerged victorious thanks to joining forces with Kim Jong-pil and the ruling party split between Lee Hoi-chang and Rhee In-je, while Moon Jae-in won in an early presidential election because of the three-way rift within the conservatives, created by Hong Joon-pyo, Ahn Cheol-soo and Yoo Seong-min, following the impeachment of Park Geun-hye. Roh Moo-hyun’s dramatic victory took place in harrowing circumstances following Chung Mong-joon’s sudden withdrawal of support on the eve of the election.
 
On the other hand, the conservatives won a whopping five times, thanks to the variety of narratives they employed, which included external variables and several drastic transformations. Some notable narratives can be seen in the following examples: Roh Tae-woo snatched the position thanks to the split in the opposition; Kim Young-sam won by turning his back on his progressive roots to join the conservatives; Lee Myung-bak and Yoon Suk-yeol won nominations as the conservative party opted for outsiders who were affiliated with centrist reformists; Park Geun-hye, who had always had a solid base of support, expanded that base with a radical transformation.
 
If the Constitutional Court decides to remove Yoon from office, leading to a presidential election sometime between April and June, the PPP will do everything in its power to retain its status as the ruling party. Their war cry will be “Anyone but Lee Jae-myung,” with their main tactic to create conflict between Lee supporters and Lee detractors by emphasizing the judicial charges against Lee and highlighting the dangers that will come if the majority party commandeers the executive branch.
 
Much like how the heart of the martial law incident that trampled on South Korea’s Constitution and democracy has become muddied as discourse has veered toward a framing of disputes between the ruling and opposition parties and the friction between the liberals and conservatives, the PPP will resort to fearmongering about Lee.
 
Victory is of the utmost importance to the PPP, as demonstrated by how it changed its party colors to red, appointed Lee Jun-seok and Han Dong-hoon as party leaders and chose Yoon, the person responsible for sending former Presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye to prison, as its presidential candidate to inch closer to success. Once again, it will try to gloss over its shameful history of martial law and impeachment by choosing a presidential candidate with a fighting chance.  
 
The irrevocable truth about the PPP is that it is a party that gave rise to an individual who attempted to foment an insurrection, attempted to shield the same rebellion leader from blame, saw the majority of its lawmakers absent from the National Assembly chamber on the day martial law was lifted, and is a party without the backbone to refute claims of election fraud and condemn the angry mob which stormed the Seoul Western District Court. As long as the party fails to address such issues, we cannot give it the privilege of being called a major party of a democratic country. What’s more, is that we cannot allow for any attempt to forget the past and look toward the future.
 
The key conflicts apparent in the upcoming presidential election, which Yoon brought on himself, are between democratic and anti-democratic forces, constitutional and anti-constitutional forces, and insurrectionists and their opponents. If the PPP focuses all its efforts on slamming Lee and declaring the “dangers” of the Democratic Party while refusing to stand on the side of democratic, constitutional and anti-insurrectionist values by taking responsibility for its various regressions and reactionary behavior since Dec. 3, the only deed it will successfully pull off is highlighting its determination to remain in power.

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