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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un walks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in preparation for the latter’s departure from Pyongyang on June 19, 2024. (AP/Yonhap)

The Korean Peninsula has recently seen a string of immense changes that could be called “once-in-a-century” upheavals. The biased “values-based” diplomacy that President Yoon Suk-yeol and his administration have pursued for the past two-and-a-half years has led to inter-Korean relations deteriorating into the relations between “two states hostile to each other,” and the North Korea-Russia alliance appearing to have started evolving into a “blood alliance,” as evidenced by reports of troops from a North Korean special forces unit being deployed to fight for Russia in Ukraine. 

The fruits of consistent efforts by every Republic of Korea presidential administration to build relations with North Korea went up in smoke overnight, and South Korea finds itself at the front lines of a conflict between two political and ideological blocs the likes of which hasn’t been seen in 30 years. Such a grave reality cannot be changed overnight, but we need a clear-headed, balanced approach to relations with the North if we are to avoid the worst-case scenario. 

Recent news from North Korea must be shocking for South Koreans who have become accustomed to times of peace during the post-Cold War era. 

On Thursday, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspected the headquarters of the 2nd Corps of the North Korean army, where he announced, “We completely blocked the roads and railways linked to the territory of the ROK [South Korea] two days ago through blasting,” calling the demolition “the physical closure but also the end of the undesirable relationship with Seoul, which persistently lasted century after century, and the complete removal of the useless awareness about fellow countrymen and unrealistic idea of reunification.”

Doing away with the idea of his father and grandfather that the Korean people should one day be reunited as a single nation, Kim has repeatedly referred to South Korea as “a foreign and indisputable enemy state.” There is a high chance that the session of the Supreme People’s Assembly on Oct. 7 and 8 approved a constitutional revision that officially identifies inter-Korean relations as those between two states at war.  

News of North Korea’s large-scale military deployments to Russia and the Ukrainian front are even more worrisome. On Friday, the South Korean National Intelligence Service announced that over 1,500 troops from a North Korean special forces unit had been transported on Russian naval ships to Vladivostok and other Russian territory. The US and NATO have maintained a reticent stance, offering no official responses other than statements saying they “can’t confirm” such reports. 

Ukrainian intelligence authorities, however, are offering very specific reports, including predictions that North Korea will finish training around 11,000 troops for deployment to Russia on Nov. 1, and that 2,600 of these troops will be dispatched to support Russian forces in the Kursk Oblast.  

The deterioration of inter-Korean relations and the evolution of North Korea’s partnership with Russia into a “blood alliance” is a diplomatic disaster that South Korea cannot handle on its own. The current situation requires us to consider the possibility of Russian involvement should an armed conflict arise on the Korean Peninsula. Major changes to the operational plans of the South Korea-US alliance now appear inevitable. 

We cannot change the past, but we need a cool-headed reappraisal of the Yoon administration’s foreign policy route, which has put all its eggs in the basket of bolstered military cooperation with the US and Japan under the guise of “values-based” diplomacy.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]