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South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik (right) is welcomed to the Japanese Ministry of Defense in Tokyo on July 28, 2024, ahead of talks with his Japanese counterpart. (courtesy of the Ministry of National Defense)

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By Kwon Hyuk-chul, inter-Korean affairs and unification editor

President Yoon Suk-yeol once discredited the Moon Jae-in administration’s Korean Peninsula peace process policy toward North Korea, stating that “peace that relies on the other party’s goodwill is false and not sustainable” and labeling it “a policy that kowtows to North Korea.”

While the Yoon administration stresses a brand of inter-Korean relations that does not depend on the goodwill of the North, when it comes to Japan his government has remained engaged in diplomacy that relies on good faith from Japan ever since coming to power. Despite criticism from the opposition that this amounts to diplomatic submission to Japan, the government is unfazed. Yoon remains firmly closed off to North Korea while demonstrating great openness and magnanimity toward Japan.

Security cooperation among Korea, the US and Japan is racing toward the level of an alliance. On July 28, the defense ministers of Korea, the US and Japan signed a memorandum of cooperation on the Trilateral Security Cooperation Framework, the first document to institutionalize security cooperation including regular trilateral military drills. The three nations agreed on measures including carrying out regular, systematic trilateral military exercises based on a multi-year trilateral training plan, shoring up communication and cooperation to effectively run a real-time system for sharing North Korean missile alerts, and holding meetings of the three countries’ defense chiefs that rotate between all three countries.

Why is the Yoon administration so intent on furthering trilateral and bilateral security cooperation with Japan? On Oct. 11, 2022, Yoon said, “In the face of a nuclear threat, can we really justify any [other] concerns?” At the time, an official from the presidential office expanded on this by using the metaphor of a house on fire. “When a fire breaks out, it is only natural for the neighbors to work together to put it out. The North Korean nuclear and missile threat is the largest threat facing Northeast Asia. There’s nothing strange at all about neighboring countries joining forces to deal with that threat.”

Among the neighbors to a house on fire, there may be some kind people, but also others who will happily look on without lifting a finger and even bad people who fan the flames. Is Japan a friendly neighbor who would help us put out a fire, or a bad neighbor who would instead look out for themselves while adding fuel to the fire? This point requires careful consideration.

In Korean, the point in time when it is unclear whether an entity is a friend or foe is known as “the hour between dog and wolf.” This refers to when you see the dimly-illuminated silhouette of an animal in the distance at dusk, there is no way of knowing whether it is the shepherd’s dog protecting the flock or a vicious wolf who will emerge to attack the sheep.

Yoon believes that such an hour of ambiguity has already passed for Korea-Japan relations. In last year’s National Liberation Day address, he noted that Korea and Japan are now “partners who share universal values and pursue common interests.” The president asks us to trust rather than be suspicious of Japan.

However, I believe that the dog-or-wolf hour is not yet over for Korea-Japan relations. In life, there are times when it is difficult to distinguish between a friend and someone to be wary of (a foe). When a person presents as an enemy right from the outset it is possible to keep your distance and remain vigilant, but there are also times when someone you thought was a friend later turns out to be an enemy. Notably, those enemies in hiding don’t reveal their true colors until a decisive moment.

For the Korean Peninsula, that decisive moment would be when a conflict or war with North Korea breaks out. Since its 2022 defense white paper, Japan has declared its “counterstrike capability” to attack enemy bases in response to security threats such as North Korea. Korea’s stance is that it is essential to consult with and obtain consent from Korea before the exercise of any counterstrike capabilities, as this is directly connected to the security and sovereignty of the Korean Peninsula. 

However, Japan remains of the view that the exercise of counterstrike capability is an act of self-defense and thus not a matter requiring permission from another nation. In the event that Japan ignores South Korea and attacks North Korea in an emergency, it would deny the South’s territorial supremacy (the right to rule over all people and objects within one’s territory) for the North Korean region. Back in October 2015, Japan derailed the signing of the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement between Korea and Japan when it declared that Korea’s effective sovereign territory was limited to the south of the Military Demarcation Line, thereby denying the South’s territorial supremacy over North Korea.

I believe Korea-Japan relations need to stick out the dog-or-wolf hour a little longer. Diplomacy that relies on assumed goodwill is not sustainable.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]