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Shin Won-sik, the former minister of national defense and current national security adviser, speaks before a plenary session of the National Assembly’s National Defense Committee on Aug. 8, 2024. (Kim Gyoung-ho/Hankyoreh)

Backlash continues to mount over remarks by South Korea’s national security adviser on Sunday that North Korea won’t start a war unless it is “dead set on suicide.” The concern stems from the fact that only does a public determination that Korea cannot start a war by the president’s top adviser for national security constitute a foreign policy message, but that comments that directly target North Korean leader Kim Jong-un could provoke the North Korean regime to cross the “red line” by conducting a localized aggression.

For several days in a row, the South Korean government has communicated messages that directly target North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Kim Yo-jong, the vice department director of the Workers’ Party of Korea Central Committee and sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, has publicly claimed that the South Korean government sent the drones that North Korea alleges recently entered the airspace above Pyongyang. The South Korean Ministry of National Defense called this claim “nothing more than a ploy to exploit the rancor of its citizens, who are tired of the illegitimate dictatorship that rules them.” 

On Wednesday, North Korea cut off all inter-Korean roads and declared that it would begin fortifying its southern border. The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff responded by saying “North Korea’s recent movements to seal off the border are nothing more than a desperate last resort by Kim Jong-un’s failed regime, and will only lead to harsher isolation.” 

Shin went further by adding, “North Korea has been exhibiting unprecedented levels of sensitivity since the celebrations of our Armed Forces Day this past Oct. 1. Just before that, the head of Hezbollah was killed by a bunker buster [a type of munition designed to destroy targets deep underground], but the super-powerful Hyunmoo-5 [publicly revealed on Armed Forces Day] is 10 times more powerful. Kim Jong-un surely felt a chill in his spine.” Shin then confidently claimed that Kim would never dare start a war. 

Experts say that such remarks only give North Korea more latitude to fire back. 

“From North Korea’s perspective, a provocation entered the airspace directly above their supreme leader. It is only natural that they view the drones as a violation of the Armistice Agreement, and they can’t help but get riled up from where they’re standing,” said Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification’s division on North Korea research.

“They [the South Korean government] keep referring to Kim Jong-un and his regime in a slightly derogatory manner, but this only gives Pyongyang more fuel for its response,” Hong added. 

“When it comes to defending Kim Jong-un, North Korea can mobilize all its resources and employ all its methods. One of those methods is war,” said Lim Eul-chul, an associate professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies. 

“As North Korea is armed with nuclear weapons, continuing to relay provocative messages that escalate tensions is a very dangerous choice,” Lim added.  

There is also the stance that if inter-Korean military tensions keep escalating beyond a certain point, then North Korea could conduct an unexpected military action. 

“The South Korean government needs to offer strategic analysis and solutions based on a stringent collection of facts, but they’re just exchanging rhetorical barbs with the North,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies. 

“At this rate, an unintended skirmish or continued escalation could happen at any moment,” he added.

“In some ways, North Korea would like to avoid further escalation, but in the current situation they have no choice but to up the scales,” said Hong. 

Experts are calling for “a meticulous management of the situation” instead of the hard-line war of words. 

“Currently, South Korea can hardly be compared with North Korea when it comes to our national prestige or status in the international community. Acting on the same level as North Korea not only degrades our prestige, but is a poor strategic decision. What we need right now is restraint,” said Yang.

By Shin Hyeong-cheol, staff reporter

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