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North Korea tests an ICBM on Oct. 31, 2024. (KCNA/Yonhap)

A US military intelligence agency estimates that by 2035, North Korea will possess up to 50 intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, which could target the US homeland. The advancement of North Korea’s strategic weapons is considered a compounding threat to US security alongside China and Russia.
 
A report released by the Defense Intelligence Agency on Tuesday stated, “North Korea has successfully tested ballistic missiles with sufficient range to reach the entire [US] Homeland.” The report showed that North Korea currently has 10 or fewer missiles and estimated that the country would be able to obtain around 40 more by 2035. 

The report emphasized that ICBMs are “typically armed with a nuclear warhead or warheads” and that there is “no part of the Homeland which cannot be struck by existing ICBMs.”
 
On the same day as the report’s release, Gregory Guillot, the commander of US Northern Command, submitted a written testimony to the US Senate Committee on Armed Services. 

“North Korea continues to defy the international nonproliferation regime and advance its strategic weapons program,” Guillot said. The commander also commented on North Korea’s weapons development program, saying, “Regime rhetoric surrounding the new ICBM suggests Kim is eager to transition his strategic weapons program from research and development to serial production and fielding.”
 
Guillot expressed deep concern over North Korea’s newest solid-fueled ICBM, the Hwasong-19. The missile, which was first tested on Oct. 31, 2024, is believed to have a better range and stronger propellant force compared to its predecessors. Its solid-fuel base, which allows for much quicker and thus harder-to-detect launches, could significantly impede the US’ ability to respond to North Korean threats.
 
Guillot labeled North Korea as one of the US’ “four principal adversaries,” grouped with China, Russia and Iran, and warned that the likelihood of a direct conflict between the US and those adversaries is increasing, writing, “While the [four countries] each seek to avoid armed conflict with the United States, their perception of Western decline fosters a growing willingness to challenge the United States on the global stage and increases the risk of miscalculation in a crisis.”
 
Regarding the growing cooperation between North Korea and Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine, Guillot opined, “North Korea’s willingness to risk its own troops in support of Russia’s war in Ukraine demonstrates the lengths to which these partners are willing to go to advance their strategic positions and defy the Western-led international order.” 

“It also raises concerning questions about the quid pro quo that Moscow may offer in return, potentially including expertise that could accelerate Pyongyang’s development of advanced strategic weapons,” the commander said. 
 
The DIA report also noted the major threat posed by the expansion of China’s strategic weapon programs, predicting that China would possess up to 60 nuclear warheads launched through the fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS) by 2035, as well as expanding traditional ICBMs to up to 700. China’s stocks of hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV), aerodynamic bodies that glide for at least half of their flight to their target, are expected to increase from 600 to 4,000 in the same time frame.
 
FOBS is a system that enables missiles to enter a low-altitude orbit before reentering to strike their target. The trajectory of such missiles is less predictable than traditional ICBMs and has a much shorter flight time. The DIA explained that such missiles could “avoid early warning systems and missile defenses” as they can travel over the South Pole.
 
This report is likely to be used to justify the US’ plans to build a next-generation missile defense system dubbed the “Golden Dome.” While specific timelines and budgets are yet to be released, the Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the US may need to spend up to US$542 billion over 20 years to deploy a constellation of space-based interceptors, the key components of the Golden Dome.

By Kim Won-chul, Washington correspondent

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