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US President Joe Biden delivers a speech critical of Russia from Warsaw, Poland, only hours after President Vladimir Putin of Russia delivered a speech critical of the West in a speech on the war in Ukraine from Moscow on Feb. 21. (AP/Yonhap)

At 10:21 am, on April 5, 2009, then-US President Barack Obama delivered a major speech from Hradčany Square in Prague, Czech Republic, in which he articulated the dream of a world free of nuclear weapons.

“I state clearly and with conviction America’s commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons,” Obama said during the speech.

After the sitting president of the US, the country that had invented and employed the devastating technology of nuclear weapons, offered this powerful vision, the square overflowed with applause and cheers.

Now that 14 years have passed, humanity confronts a grim reality that is diametrically opposed to the optimistic future that Obama had imagined.

After plunging humanity into the morass of a new Cold War with his invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced during his first policy address in two years on Tuesday that Russia will suspend participation in the New Start nuclear arms treaty, its last remaining nuclear arms control pact with the US. Following the address, Putin signed a presidential order scrapping Russian foreign policy guidelines mandating treaty compliance.

Even amid their intense standoff during the Cold War, the US and Soviet Union concluded several arms control agreements to prevent a nuclear war that would lead to their mutual annihilation, including New Start in 1991 and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 1987.

The INF treaty dramatically improved the security environment in Europe by banning the production, testing and deployment of short- and medium-range ballistic and cruise missiles with a range of 500-5,500 km, while the New Start treaty blocked a reckless nuclear arms race by limiting the number of nuclear warheads and delivery systems that could be deployed for combat.

Under the current version of the treaty, which took effect in February 2011, the US and Russia are required to limit the number of strategic nuclear weapons deployed for duty to 1,550 and the number of nuclear delivery systems (including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and strategic bombers) to 700.

The watchword at the close of the Cold War was “trust, but verify.” Based on that trust, the two sides opened the doors to inspectors who could verify the implementation of the treaties. Those mutual inspections have not been held for three years, since March 2020, initially because of the pandemic, but later because of a lack of cooperation from Russia.

Russia sought to blame the US for its rash decision.

“The Russian Federation found itself in a radically new security environment resulting from Washington’s extreme hostility and efforts to stir up confrontation, as well as its openly set course for a malicious escalation of the conflict in and around Ukraine,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in a long statement on Tuesday.

As Putin declared in his address that same day, Russia has no choice but to play the “nuclear card” in order to prevent its “strategic defeat” by the US.

Paul Wolfowitz, former US deputy secretary of defense, explained to the New York Times on Wednesday that Putin’s statement was more political than military in nature.

Corroborating that view, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said it would “strictly comply with the quantitative restrictions” through the treaty period of February 2026. “The decision to suspend the New START Treaty can be reversed,” the Ministry said, “if Washington demonstrates the political will and takes honest efforts towards general de-escalation.”

In effect, Russia is demanding that the US not push for Russia’s “strategic defeat” in Ukraine. But that demand is unlikely to go over well with US President Joe Biden, who pledged unwavering support for Ukraine in a surprise visit to the capital city of Kyiv on Monday.

Russia’s move elicited an angry response on Tuesday from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who described the decision as “deeply unfortunate and irresponsible.”

But it was the US that unilaterally withdrew from the INF treaty — another brace maintaining the strategic balance with Russia — four years ago out of concerns about the rapid military rise of China.

The US’ 2022 Nuclear Posture Review last October offered the gloomy prediction that “by the 2030s the United States will, for the first time in its history, face two major nuclear powers as strategic competitors.” That’s a prospect the US is determined to resist.

The US will likely expand its own nuclear capabilities as it seeks to curb the challenge posed by China, which is racing past Russia as it dramatically increases its nuclear arsenal from around 300 to 1,500 devices.

In that sense, Russia’s decision on Tuesday will likely be remembered as a long-term inflection point toward a full-fledged nuclear arms race between the three powers of the US, China and Russia. Say goodbye to the era of nuclear arms control grounded in trust; say hello to the era of nuclear competition dominated by distrust and hatred.

By Gil Yun-hyung, staff reporter; Park Byong-su, senior staff writer

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