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President Yoon Suk-yeol of South Korea (left) speaks during a summit with President Joe Biden of the US and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, on Nov. 13, 2022. (Yonhap)

Political tensions are climbing on the Korean Peninsula at the beginning of the new year, with the leaders of South and North Korea emphasizing “preparations for war.”

As calls for strengthening trilateral security cooperation between South Korea, the United States and Japan grow louder citing the North Korean threat, critics say such cooperation could become yet another factor of tension in line with the strategic competition between the United States and China.

According to Voice of America’s coverage on Monday, US diplomacy and security experts stressed that the Joe Biden administration should actively push trilateral security cooperation between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo in the new year, while maintaining the existing policy of pressure on Pyongyang.

Robert J. Einhorn, the former State Department special advisor for nonproliferation and arms control, predicted that progress in negotiations with North Korea in the new year will be “very, very limited.”

He called on the Biden administration to always keep the door of diplomacy open, but he felt there was little prospect of conducting negotiations with the North over denuclearization.

“I think priority in the current circumstances has to be on strengthening our collective deterrent. The deterrent provided by the U.S. ROK military alliance. As well as the deterrent provided by tripartite U.S.-Japan-South Korean defense cooperation,” he said.

In particular, Einhorn praised last year’s joint anti-submarine warfare drills and missile defense exercises between South Korea, the United States and Japan, adding that if “2+2” talks between the three nations’ foreign and defense ministers were to convene in 2023, it would constitute a very positive development.

Einhorn’s comments can be read as a call to elevate the trilateral security cooperation between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo in the face of the common threat of North Korea close to the point of an alliance.

Thomas Countryman, a former assistant secretary of state for international security and nonproliferation during the Obama administration and the current chairman of the Arms Control Association, stressed the need to build a trilateral alliance between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo, saying South Korea and Japan face very serious threats from North Korea and, potentially, China.

“Extended deterrence means not relying solely on the US nuclear deterrent, but having a capability for self-defense and being able to work with, rely on and trust allies,” Countryman said, adding that the relationship among the United States, South Korea and Japan “is and should be more effectively a trilateral alliance.”

Experts called on Seoul to take part in the Washington-led missile defense system, too.

Former White House special assistant on East Asia affairs Dennis Wilder said he knew South Korea was hesitant to take part in missile defense due to concerns about China, but with the North Korean threat rising, Seoul must consider building a “Northeast Asian missile defense system” that combines the capabilities of South Korea, the United States and Japan.

In the “Phnom Penh Statement on US – Japan – Republic of Korea Trilateral Partnership for the Indo-Pacific” released after the trilateral summit in Cambodia in November, the leaders of the three nations said they “intend to share DPRK missile warning data in real time to improve each country’s ability to detect and assess the threat posed by incoming missiles, a major step for deterrence, peace and stability.”

The problem is that Beijing believes a US-led Northeast Asian missile defense system is aimed at China.

If South Korea takes part in the system, China is likely to respond much more strongly than when Seoul agreed to host THAAD.

Therefore, there is mounting concern of a potential security dilemma, with rapidly intensifying trilateral security cooperation between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo since the launch of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration raising tensions as it sparks resistance from North Korea and China.

Kim Chang-soo, a former South Korean presidential unification advisor, said the United States has wanted to build a trilateral alliance between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo to contain China since the Obama administration.

“Washington must consider the current situation with rising anti-China sentiment in South Korea and the increased North Korean threat a golden opportunity,” he said.

“[The United States] might be putting the North Korean threat forward, but behind it is China. If we rashly raise the level of security cooperation between South Korea, the United States and Japan, it could further restrict South Korea’s diplomatic leeway.”

By Jung In-hwan, staff reporter

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