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US House Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez speaks at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois, in August 2024. (AFP/Yonhap)

By Kim Won-chul, Washington correspondent

“Millennials are not punk kids anymore. We’re grown adults with mortgages and kids. [. . .] And we’re taking the reins.” — AOC

The US midterm elections on Nov. 3 will determine more than which party controls the House and the Senate. They will also shape the starting lines of the 2028 presidential race. A wide range of politicians have an eye on 2028 as the US hurtles toward the midterms.

At 36 years old, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a millennial. She’s serving her fourth term as a US congresswoman for New York after bursting onto the political scene in 2018 with her primary defeat of 10-term incumbent Joe Crowley, then the No. 4 Democrat in the House of Representatives.

A democratic socialist in the political tradition of Bernie Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez has become an icon of the American progressive movement and one of the best-known political stars of the social media era.

Could Ocasio-Cortez become the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee in 2028? What was once wishful thinking for her supporters is attracting serious speculation in Washington given the growing influence of progressives and younger voters in the Democratic Party.

Zohran Mamdani, another democratic socialist, was elected mayor of New York, while progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed surged to victory in Michigan’s Senate primary — both with Ocasio-Cortez’s backing.

Young progressives elsewhere have also been challenging establishment candidates. Whether their momentum will translate into victories in November’s general elections will be the litmus test for whether the idea of an AOC presidential bid has legs.

Ocasio-Cortez is clearly becoming more strategic in her public actions, such as her remark that “Woke One was crazy” in a recent television interview.

That phrase refers to the first phase of “woke politics” that swept the American left around 2020. “Woke” originally meant being alert to social inequality involving race, gender and other issues, but has come to be associated with shrill political correctness and identity politics.

Ocasio-Cortez was herself once regarded as embodying woke politics. But now she is deliberately distancing herself from this earlier chapter in her career, drawing a line between who she was then and who she is now.

The numbers are moving as well. In national polls for a hypothetical presidential primary, she remained in the single digits until last year but has recently climbed into the low-to- mid teens.

In New Hampshire, one of the first Democratic primaries in 2028, Ocasio-Cortez registered 22% support in July, putting her at the top of the field, ahead of Pete Buttigieg, who served as transportation secretary in the Biden administration. At one point, prediction markets even named her as the favorite for the Democratic nomination over California Governor Gavin Newsom and other mainstream prospects.

The prevailing view is that her chances are slim because she could struggle to win over moderates and independents. There’s also considerable skepticism that she could overcome resistance from the Democratic establishment to secure the nomination, much as Bernie Sanders ultimately failed to defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016.

But if the struggle playing out inside the Democratic Party is less a battle of “left versus center” than “young versus old,” AOC’s chances may be better than we assume.

The 2028 presidential election will be the first since 2012 without Donald Trump on the ballot. The midterms this year could offer a clue about what will fill the resulting political vacuum.

Perhaps radical change is in store for America.

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