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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has “suspended the military action plans against the south brought for the fifth meeting of the Seventh [Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK)] Central Military Commission by the General Staff of the Korean People's Army,” according to a front-page piece published in the June 24 edition of the Rodong Sinmun newspaper. The same day, North Korea took down the loudspeaker equipment it had been setting up since June 21 for propaganda broadcasts to South Korea at around 30 locations in the DMZ.

For now, the “indiscriminate leaflet scattering struggle of historic proportions by the angry people” warned of by Pyongyang is not expected to proceed. Instead, inter-Korean relations are predicted to enter a “cooling-off period” from their race toward crisis in the wake of a June 4 statement by WPK Central Committee Deputy Director Kim Yo-jong raising issues with the scattering of leaflets in the North.

According to the Rodong Sinmun, Kim Jong-un directed a “preliminary meeting for the fifth meeting of the Seventh Central Military Commission of the WPK” held on June 23 via video conference.

“At the preliminary meeting, the WPK Central Military Commission took stock of the prevailing situation and suspended the military action plans against the south brought for the fifth meeting of the Seventh Central Military Commission by the General Staff of the Korean People's Army,” the report said. Both the “video conferencing” and “preliminary meeting” formats were appearing for the first time since Kim Jong-un came to power in 2012.

In a June 17 spokesperson’s announcement, the KPA General Staff announced plans for four forms of military action: deploying regiment-level units to the Mt. Kumgang and Kaesong Industrial Complex areas, re-establishing guard posts in the DMZ, conducting military exercises in the border region, and supporting the scattering of leaflets in South Korea. At the time, it said it would “present them to the Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party of Korea for ratification at an earliest date.”

The latest meeting “examined agenda items of major military policy to be laid before the fifth meeting of the Seventh WPK Central Military Commission, and made a study of a report and decisions, which will be submitted to the fifth meeting, and some documents carrying the state measures for further bolstering the war deterrent of the country,” the report said, although it did not provide any specific details.

In contrast with the CMC’s reference to “increasing nuclear war deterrence” at a fourth enlarged meeting a month ago (as reported on the front page of the Rodong Sinmun’s May 24 edition), the June 24 report notably referred only to “bolstering the war deterrent,” while omitting the “nuclear” part. It also said that the video conference was attended by “Ri Pyong Chol, vice-chairman of the WPK Central Military Commission, and some members of the commission.” Ri -- the only individual mentioned by name besides Kim Jong-un -- is a central figure in North Korea’s nuclear and missile development as both vice chairman of WPK and director of the Munitions Industry Department.

With Kim moving to suspend the military action plans against the South, the hardline stance that has been intensifying in Pyongyang since Kim Yo-jong’s June 4 statement appears poised to enter a cooling-off period. Indeed, the June 24 edition of the Rodong Sinmun did not contain any articles denouncing the South through “reactions from different segments,” as it had done every day following Kim’s statement on June 7.

With the report indicating that Kim “suspended” the military action plan rather than cancelling it, it remains too early to tell if Pyongyang is fully abandoning its recent hardline stance toward Seoul. As if to reflect this, South Korean Ministry of Unification Spokesperson Yoh Sang-key said at a regular press conference that day that “we are closely and carefully examining the Rodong Sinmun report and will continue to observe the situation.”

A senior Blue House official said, “We’re cautious about saying anything right now.” In that regard, a local inspection of a frequent leaflet dissemination site in the Wolgot township of Gimpo, Gyeonggi Province, that afternoon by Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun is an important development -- effectively President Moon Jae-in’s way of answering Kim Jong-un’s decision to suspend military action plans.

At the same time, North Korea also published another statement credited to WPK Central Committee Vice Chairman Kim Yong-chol on the evening of June 24, in which it addressed South Korean Minister of National Defense Jeong Kyeong-doo’s remarks before the National Assembly Legislation and Judiciary Committee earlier that day insisting that the North’s plans should have been “withdrawn rather than suspended.” Describing Jeong’s remarks as an “untimely slip of the tongue,” Kim Yong-chol’s statement stressed that Seoul “has to realize that self-control is the ’key’ to tiding over the crisis.”

The Rodong Sinmun did not offer specifics as to why Kim Jong-un decided to suspend the military action plans, distancing himself from Pyongyang’s recently hardline activities with the June 9 disconnection of all inter-Korean hotlines and June 16 demolition of the inter-Korean joint liaison office building in Kaesong. It only said that the “WPK Central Military Commission took stock of the prevailing situation.” No conditions were shared for the suspension or withdrawal either.

To understand Kim’s decision, it is necessary to examine the new variables that may have influenced Pyongyang’s attitude and approach to Seoul following a June 17 statement by Kim Yo-jong attacking two sets of remarks about North Korea by Moon on the 20th anniversary of the June 15 South-North Joint Declaration of 2000. The first is the resignation of Minister of Unification Kim Yeon-chul. Kim Yeon-chul stepped down as a gesture of responsibility for the souring of inter-Korean relations, which he insisted “must stop here.”

Second, the government, the Democratic Party, and Gyeonggi Province have all taken steps to crack down on leaflet dissemination activities at the source and punish those responsible. Both the Blue House and Ministry of Unification (MOU) have vowed stern action, while Democratic Party floor leader Kim Tae-nyeon announced plans to hasten legislation of an act banning leaflet distribution. Gyeonggi Gov. Lee Jae-myung designated the border region as a “risk zone” and prohibited access to people looking to launch leaflets, while asking the police to investigate four groups that have been scattering the leaflets. Another possible analysis is that Pyongyang was influenced by the publication of former White House National Security Advisor John Bolton’s memoirs. Bolton’s “exposé” could have had the ironic effect of dramatically revealing the genuineness of Moon’s approach to Pyongyang.

A further possibility is that Kim reached the strategic conclusion that it would not benefit North Korea at a time when it needs to focus on its economy for inter-Korean military frictions to intensify and the military agreement reached between the two sides on Sept. 19, 2008, to be neutralized or abandoned as a result of the “four military actions” warned of by the KPA General Staff. Kim Jong-un, who has been urging an “offensive for making a breakthrough head-on” with a focus on the economic front, has focused energies on tending the economy and livelihood, stressing the importance of establishing a “carbon one industry” and potassic fertilizer industry and guaranteeing the livelihoods of capital residents during a 13th politburo meeting of the seventh WPK Central Committee held after the leaflet launches, as reported in a front-page story in the June 7 edition of the Rodong Sinmun.

By Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer

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