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A post by 38 North, a website devoted to analyzing events concerning North Korea, about “another crucial test” at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground in Tongchang Village, Cholsan County, on Dec. 13.
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According to a report titled “2020 Prospects and Challenges for the National Defense Policy Environment” that was published by the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) on Dec. 16, North Korea could take steps to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) with multiple warheads next year if its denuclearization talks with the US break down. Though some elements of the military have previously claimed that North Korea is seeking to develop multi-warhead ICBMs, this is the first time the idea has been officially broached by a think tank associated with South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense (MND).

“If the North Korea-US denuclearization talks collapse, North Korea will seek to credibly demonstrate its counterstrike ability, in order to counter military pressure from the US,” KIDA said in the report.

Military experts have pointed to the stubby shape of the tip of the Hwasong-15 ICBM, which North Korea launched in November 2017, as being designed to hold multiple warheads. A multi-warhead ICBM is a weapon system that releases between three to 10 warheads in the air above its target, making it harder to intercept.

“If there is even partial movement in the direction of the even greater concessions that North Korea is demanding from the US, the North will seek to step up inter-Korean arms control in order to preserve the lowered tensions on the Korean Peninsula while maintaining a limited nuclear arsenal,” KIDA said. The think tank added that this means North Korea could respond positively to the idea of boosting military transparency, by providing mutual notifications of military drills and allowing inspections.

Following the second “critical test” that North Korea claims to have carried out at Tongchang Village on Dec. 13, South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense announced that “South Korean and American intelligence agencies are carrying out a detailed analysis of the present situation.”

After making these remarks during the daily briefing on Monday, MND Spokesperson Choi Hyun-soo stressed that “South Korea and the US continue to cooperate in carrying out monitoring and surveillance of key areas in North Korea, including Tongchang Village.”

By Yoo Kang-moon, senior staff writer

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