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Moon Chung-in

Moon Chung-in, special presidential advisor for unification, foreign affairs, and national security, said that US President Donald Trump’s dismissal of National Security Advisor John Bolton demonstrated his “political commitment” to the North Korea-US denuclearization talks. Bolton was an advocate of the “Libya model,” in which North Korea is expected to denuclearize before receiving any rewards.

“I think that the North Korea-US working-level talks will be held within two or three weeks,” Moon said on Friday during his keynote address at a security conference at the Lotte Hotel Seoul on the afternoon of Sept. 20. The 30th Domestic Security Conference was hosted by the Research Institute for National Security Affairs, which is affiliated with the Korea National Defense University.

Moon expressed optimism about the North Korea-US working-level talks, noting that Trump had criticized Bolton’s remarks about the Libya model as a big mistake the day after dismissing him. “There aren’t any more obstructionists like Bolton in position anymore,” Moon observed.

“While Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has a somewhat conservative side, he’s quite familiar with obeying orders as a West Point graduate. But Bolton wasn’t used to the chain of command, where subordinates are supposed to carry out the orders issued by their superiors.”

When North Korea and the US sit down at the table again, Moon predicted, they’re likely to disagree sharply about the scope of the North’s denuclearization and the measures the North should receive in compensation, just as they did during their summit in Hanoi back in February. “The US is likely to ask for the North to disclose and close its secret nuclear facilities. It’s presumed to have at least three such facilities, including one at Kangson. But it doesn’t look like the compensatory measures will be enough to satisfy the North,” Moon said.

While the US’ pledged rewards could include humanitarian aid and support for inter-Korean economic cooperation, Moon doesn’t think the US will offer what North Korea truly wants, such as easing or lifting sanctions. Moon said he also isn’t certain about whether the US is ready to offer political security guarantees, such as setting up liaison offices and negotiating the normalization of diplomatic relations; to suspend South Korea-US military exercises, including the deployment of American strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula; or to sign a non-aggression pact.

What’s ultimately important in the North Korea-US negotiations, Moon emphasized, is the political will of the two leaders. Moon said he’s confident that Trump will attempt to fix relations with North Korea before next year’s presidential election, considering that he’s accomplished little to date in the areas of foreign policy and security. “I think the working-level negotiations going forward will probably be approached not as merely technical talks but with the possibility of Trump visiting Pyongyang. I think there may be some quite positive developments in the second half of this year,” Moon said.

“The most important thing here, just as last year, is the role of South Korean President Moon Jae-in. He’ll be meeting with Trump in the US on Sept. 24, and while they’ll also be discussing the South Korea-US alliance, I think they’ll have a lot to talk about in regard to the North Korean nuclear issue.”

By Yoo Kang-moon, senior staff writer

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]

Caption: Moon Chung-in, special presidential advisor for unification, foreign affairs, and national security, and Siegfried Hecker, Stanford University professor emeritus and senior research fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, at the Seoul The Plaza Hotel on Sept. 19. (Yonhap News)