[News analysis] Third inter-Korean summit designed to create breakthrough in stalemate

Posted on : 2018-08-13 15:03 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Lulls in North Korea-US negotiations necessitate a quicker meeting than originally expected
An art performance celebrating the Panmunjeom Declaration is held before the Inter-Korean workers’ football match at Seoul World Cup Stadium on Aug. 11. (Kim Seong-gwang
An art performance celebrating the Panmunjeom Declaration is held before the Inter-Korean workers’ football match at Seoul World Cup Stadium on Aug. 11. (Kim Seong-gwang

Following news that the leaders of South and North Korea will hold their third summit in Pyongyang within September, attention is focusing on the reasons for holding the summit earlier than expected. Analysts believe that the third summit is designed to create a breakthrough in the situation, just like the second summit on May 26.

“My understanding is that Pyongyang has been chosen as the location of the summit,” a high-ranking official in the South Korean government who is well-versed in inter-Korean affairs told The Hankyoreh over the phone on Aug. 12.

“The issue of timing will have to be deliberated since both South and North Korea have their own proposals,” the official said, while adding that “North Korea’s ban on group tours by foreigners between Aug. 11 and Sept. 5 also appears to be connected to the inter-Korean summit.” The implication is that Moon’s visit to Pyongyang is likely to take place during that period.

“We expect that the high-level inter-Korean talks held tomorrow [Aug. 13] will result in an agreement about the timing and location of the inter-Korean summit agreed to during the Panmunjeom Declaration on Apr. 27 and the size of the delegation that will visit the North,” Blue House Spokesperson Kim Eui-kyum said during the regular press briefing. In the Panmunjeom Declaration, the leaders of South and North Korea agreed that South Korean President Moon Jae-in would visit Pyongyang in the fall of 2018.

When reporters asked Kim to confirm that the summit would be held in Pyongyang, he said, “On Aug. 10, I said something along the lines that the basic idea is Pyongyang but that we can’t rule out other possibilities, but that was just theoretical. I was taken by surprise when [the press] stressed ‘a third location.’” These remarks basically stress that Moon will be visiting Pyongyang.

High-ranking sources in the government who are familiar with affairs at the Blue House said that an agreement has been reached about the time and location through a considerable amount of backroom deliberations between the two sides but that the details of the agenda didn’t appear to be completely worked out.

“Rather than a summit being held because the conditions are in place” – such as progress in North Korea-US relations – “it would be more accurate to regard this as a summit aimed at creating those conditions,” said one well-informed source.

In order to improve relations between North Korea and the US – which have been at loggerheads over denuclearization and an end-of-the-war declaration since the summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump in Singapore on June 12 – it has become necessary for Kim and Moon to meet more quickly than the fall timeframe on which they had originally agreed, the official source explained.

Though Kim and Trump agreed during their summit to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula and end their hostile relations, there has been little clear progress since then aside from North Korea shutting down some nuclear and missile facilities and repatriating the remains of American service members and the US and South Korea suspending their joint military exercises.

A tug-of-war has continued between the US, which is asking for a list of North Korea’s current nuclear weapon and missile facilities as the first step of denuclearization, and North Korea, which wants the Korean War to be officially ended as part of a security guarantee for its regime.

The third summit shows that South Korea’s efforts to intervene in North Korea and the US’s dispute and clear up their “misunderstandings” are bearing fruit, analysts say. Since the implementation of the agreement reached in the North Korea-US summit has run into trouble as the two sides double down on their demands, in other words, it’s time for Moon to dust off his skills as a mediator.

Though sources report that no definite plan has been framed thus far to make progress in inter-Korean and North Korea-US relations, they also say that Kim and Moon both are determined to break out of the current deadlock. An abruptly held summit at Panmunjeom on May 26 between the two leaders – their second summit – breathed new life into the sparks of the North Korea-US summit, which came very close to being canceled.

Along with this, it’s possible that Moon and Kim took into account the string of events, both at home and abroad, that fall in September and October. Sept. 9 is the 70th anniversary of the foundation of the North Korean state, a holiday that is regarded as very significant in the North, and a major event may be held to commemorate the occasion. In his New Year’s address this year, Kim referred to this date as a “major national event” along with the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, and Kim will need to make some tangible progress leading up to the holiday.

Furthermore, Russian President Vladimir Putin has invited both Moon and Kim to attend the Eastern Economic Forum, which will be held in Vladivostok from Sept. 11 to 13. Moon had initially been leaning toward not attending, but his calculations would change if Kim were to visit Russia. Moon reportedly has a packed diplomatic agenda of his own, including the opening ceremony of the UN General Assembly, which will kick off in New York on Sept. 18.

Moon was quoted as telling his staff not to “get hung up on the word ‘fall’” in the Panmunjeom Declaration agreement about visiting Pyongyang in the fall and to consider holding the summit as early as the end of August.

By Kim Bo-hyeop, staff reporter, and Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]

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