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Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM)

Even after several previous launches of the Musudan missile had failed, North Korea launched two more missiles on June 22, showing how dedicated it is to achieving a successful launch.

North Korea reportedly deployed the Musudan (BM-25, Hwasong 10), which has an estimated range of more than 3,000km, in 2007, but it had never launched the missile until this April.

As of June 22, North Korea has launched the missiles six times. Except for the sixth missile, all of these launches have been considered definite failures.

The goal behind North Korea’s seemingly foolhardy obsession with the Musudan missile is to use a successful launch to show that it has the ability to launch a direct strike on the US military base on the island of Guam in the Pacific Ocean, military analysts believe.

North Korea already has Scud missiles (500-700km) and Rodong missiles (1,300km). But since these missiles can only travel 1,300km at the furthest, their range is limited to Japan. This means that North Korea could not strike Guam or Okinawa, which host the bases where the US would gather its strategic assets before deploying them to the Korean Peninsula in the event of a crisis.

“North Korea would need the ability to strike the US during a clash for military reasons, but it also appears to believe that it could use such an ability as leverage in normal negotiations with the US,” said a senior military officer.

“Our military has long had the US bases used for logistics and for invading Korea within the range of a precision strike. This includes the Anderson Air Force Base on Guam from which B-52 strategic bombers take off and the naval bases of aggression from which nuclear submarines are dispatched,” North Korea‘s National Defense Commission said in a statement on June 20.

The Musudan relies on more sophisticated technology than the Scud class of missiles. Based on the design of the Soviet R-27 (SS-N-6) missile, the Musudan has a better propulsion system than the Scuds.

For this reason, North Korea probably needs the Musudan’s R-27 missile technology in order to develop intercontinental ballistic missile and other long-range missiles.

John Schilling, an American missile expert, addressed the issue in a report titled “A Revised Assessment of the North Korean KN-08 ICBM.”

“If reports that North Korea has obtained ex-Soviet R-27 missiles (or at least their engines) are true, the KN-08 would likely be able to deliver first-generation fission warheads to at least some CONUS [Continental US] targets. Without R-27 engines, it is highly unlikely that the KN-08 would be able to reach any CONUS target, but it could threaten Alaska, Hawaii, and most of East Asia,” Schilling wrote.

By Park Byong-su, senior staff writer

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