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A daycare center operated by Yongin City Hall in Gyeonggi Province is closed down on Nov. 23. (Yonhap News)

With the social distancing regime increased to Level 2 across the Seoul Capital Area (SCA) as of Nov. 24, disease control authorities called on residents to refrain from year-end gatherings and other forms of in-person interaction. The city of Seoul, where the number of new COVID-19 cases has topped 100 for several days running, is taking the preemptive step of closing daycare centers and reducing late-night operation of public transportation.

“Just as a dam that is starting to burst will come crashing down all at once, there is a risk of the number of infections increasing exponentially if the spread cannot be contained to a certain scale,” Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) Director Jung Eun-kyeong said in a regular briefing on Nov. 23.

“Because this is a situation that carries a severe risk of community transmission, we strongly request that [people] cancel any end-of-year events or conduct them without in-person or contact,” she added. The number of new cases that day stood at 271 as of midnight. While the number was down slightly from over 300 cases for five straight days until the day before, the reduced amount of testing over the weekend is a factor that should be taken into account.

The same day saw reports of more cases of transmission through gatherings among family members and friends, where masks tend not to be worn. Another 15 cases were diagnosed in connection with an infection cluster involving a sauna for residents of an apartment complex in Seoul’s Seocho District, bringing the cumulative total cases as of Nov. 23 to 56. Twelve additional cases were diagnosed in connection with a cluster of family members and friends in Incheon’s Namdong (Southeast) District for a cumulative total of 57, while four more were diagnosed in connection with a social gathering in Changwon, South Gyeongsang Province, for a cumulative total of 37.

The rising percentage of cases among young people — often asymptomatic — has sparked growing fears about “silent spreading.” According to an age distribution of new confirmed cases between Nov. 15 and 21 shared by the KDCA, people aged 20-29 represented the largest segment across all age groups at 17.8%. They were followed by patients in their 50s (17.4%), 40s (15.7%), 60s (14.4%), and 30s (13.2%). Patients in their 20s also showed the largest rate of increase, climbing by 7.2 percentage points from the 10.6% rate recorded between Sept. 27 and Oct. 3.

A notably high positivity rate for COVID-19 antibodies among previously undiagnosed soldiers was also observed in national health and nutrition survey data and interim enlistee COVID-19 antibody survey data released by the KDCA the same day. Antibody testing conducted in September and October on 6,859 enlisted soldiers at the Army Training Center showed 25 of them testing positive. Fifteen of them had not been diagnosed in their community, which translated into an undiagnosed antibody rate of 0.22%. In contrast, the undiagnosed antibody rate for the third national health and nutrition survey, which examined 1,379 ordinary members of the public, stood at 0.07%. This indicates that the undiagnosed antibody rate among young enlisted soldiers is three times higher than that of the general public.

“In many cases, young people show no symptoms or only mild symptoms when they are infected,” Jung explained.

“Also, because they tend to be highly socially active without undergoing treatment or testing at medical institutions, they pose a relatively high risk of transmission within their community,” she added.

On Nov. 23, the city of Seoul declared an “emergency pause period for 10 million citizens” through the end of the year, announcing that it would be preemptively implementing certain disease control measures beyond those prescribed by the Level 2 social distancing regime. Until a further announcement is made, gatherings of 10 or more people are to be prohibited in accordance with Level 3 guidelines, with city bus service and subway service after 10 pm to be reduced by 20% as of Nov. 24 and Nov. 27, respectively. The city also plans to move the last subway service time up from midnight to 11 pm if the emergency continues.

While the closing of daycare centers is not required under the Level 2 distancing regime, numerous cities, counties, and districts nationwide — including the city of Seoul and parts of Gyeonggi Province and Incheon — are moving to suspend their operation. The city of Seoul announced that it was closing all 5,380 of its daycare centers as of Nov. 24. The closure is expected to remain in effect through the end of the year.

By Suh Hye-mi, Choi Ha-yan, and Kim Yang-jin, staff reporters

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