hankyoreh

By Kim Jong-cheol, political correspondent

The drop in approval ratings for President Park Geun-hye’s performance owes to her losing the support of independents, including moderates and younger voters, poll results show.

The loss of moderates, who were one of the big segments behind her election victory last year, is a particularly troubling signal for the Park administration.

Weekly opinion polls conducted by Gallup Korea from March through last week showed positive and negative ratings for Park’s performance among independents during the early-term months of March and April, with roughly 28-30% giving a positive grade and 26-31% disapproving.

The percentage expressing approval began to rise around the time of Park’s US visit in May. By July, it reached 47%, or more than double the 21% expressing disapproval.

But favorable ratings among independents began to slide in late September, around the time Park backpedaled on her election pledge for a basic old age pension for everyone 60 and older. By the time a scandal was erupting over the “witch hunt” against former Prosecutor General Chae Dong-wook in late October, more independents disapproved than approved by a 42% to 37% margin. The final poll for the third week of December showed the gap widening, with 49% disapproving and just 33% approving.

Park’s loss of younger voters has also been noticeable. As recently as early October, respondents in their twenties and thirties were showing far more positive than negative ratings, but by the second half of the month the disapprovals had overtaken the approvals. The gap has continued to widen ever since, reaching 15 percentage points in the last poll.

Meanwhile, positive ratings by older respondents in their fifties and sixties have remained more or less in place since reaching 65% and 84%, respectively, back in May.

Park’s general approval rating slide coincided with this change of heart among independents and younger voters. In September, she registered an all-time high average of 63%, but by October it had dropped all the way to 55%. In the poll for the third week of December, which showed a 49% disapproval rating among independents, Park’s general approval rating was 48%, lower than the 51.6% of the electorate that won her the presidency.

It marked the first time her rating had dipped below 50% in the seven months since March and April, when controversies over her nominees for top positions sent scores tumbling.

Ratings for Park’s ruling Saenuri Party (NFP) and the opposition Democratic Party have remained more or less in place at 41-43% and 20-21% since Park took office.

“The loss of independents looks to have been a crucial factor in the drop in Park’s approval rating,” said Yoon Hee-woong, opinion analysis center chief at Min Consulting on Dec. 29, adding that controversies over Park’s backpedaling on social service pledges and general “uncommunicativeness” appeared to be factors in her being abandoned by moderates and other independents.

“The independents still aren’t supporting the opposition, and there are some signs of fracturing in what had seemed to be a solid support base for the ruling party,” Yoon added. “So we’ll need to keep watching.”

At the same time, he also predicted that the Park administration would have “a lot of trouble gaining momentum for its governance if this trend keeps up.”

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