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South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe meet in Bangkok, Thailand, on Nov. 4. (provided by Blue House)

South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe affirmed an approach of resolving their issues through dialogue in their first conversation in 13 months. While the conversation was taken as signaling a chance for positive change in the two sides’ chilly relations, analysis said a lot of ground remains to be covered before they find solutions, which involve a complex mixture of factors such as a resolution on the forced labor issue, export controls, and Seoul’s pending termination of its General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) with Japan.

While in Thailand to attend the ASEAN Plus Three (South Korea, China, and Japan) summit, Moon met with Abe for an 11-minute one-on-one conversation at the Novotel Impact Forum in Bangkok, site of the summit. No prior discussions had been held on the conversation, which took place when Abe entered and suggested “sitting for a moment and talking” while Moon was talking with other ASEAN leaders.

The conversation between the two leaders that day -- which came in the wake of a meeting between Abe and South Korean Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon while the latter was visiting Japan for the imperial enthronement ceremony last month -- raised hopes that bilateral relations may be reaching a turning point. It contrasted with the G20 summit in Osaka, held in late June just before Japan imposed export controls on South Korea, where the leaders departed without holding any dialogue.

“The two leaders hoped to see ideas for substantive progress in their relationship emerge from discussions that have recently been taking place through their foreign ministry channels,” the Blue House explained after the conversation that day. During the conversation, Abe reportedly offered his condolences on the passing of Moon’s mother and his thanks for sending Lee to the imperial enthronement ceremony last month. Purportedly, Moon thanked Abe for the condolences and congratulated Japan on its recent imperial enthronement; he also thanked Abe for the cordial reception offered to Lee.

But Japan’s position on the forced labor issue appears to remain unbending. According to the Japanese Foreign Ministry, Abe “clearly communicated our [Japan’s] principled position on the issues between our two sides.” The “principled position” refers to Tokyo’s stance that the forced labor issue was fully resolved by the Claims Settlement Agreement of 1965 and that a South Korean Supreme Court ruling last year ordering compensation for forced labor was in violation of that agreement.

“Japan has been firm in its position that the only way the strain in South Korea-Japan relations can be eased is if South Korea produces a solution on the forced mobilization [issue]. It’s unlikely that a real breakthrough in relations is going to come out of an 11-minute meeting between the leaders,” said Kim Sook-hyun, director of the international strategy research office at the Institute for National Security Strategy.

“But there have been changes recently with Prime Minister Abe stating that South Korea-Japan relations can no longer be neglected and with the two sides agreeing on the need for dialogue,” she acknowledged. Kim added that solutions could be devised through active government communication with forced labor victims, the co-establishment of a foundation by South Korean and Japan, and continued efforts to address shortcomings in the current South Korea-Japan agreement -- a process she predicted would take some time.

With the GSOMIA renewal deadline approaching (at midnight on Nov. 23) and the US repeatedly stressing the need to extend it, the question of how the three sides address the issue is emerging as an important test.

During a scheduled South Korean visit on Nov. 5-7, US Assistant Secretary of State David Stilwell is expected to stress the importance of trilateral cooperation and renewing GSOMIA while meeting with officials at the Blue House, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Ministry of National Defense. But as Seoul has already stated that it can only consider renewing GSOMIA if Tokyo withdraws its export controls -- which treat South Korea as a country that “cannot be trusted” in security terms -- and as Tokyo is unlikely to alter its stance on the controls, GSOMIA-related frictions appear poised to continue.

By Park Min-hee and Lee Wan, staff reporters, and Cho Ki-weon, Tokyo correspondent

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