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A woman walks by an anti-Israel banner in Tehran, Iran, depicting rocket launches on April 19, 2024. (Reuters/Yonhap)

Israel’s strike near a nuclear facility in Iran on Friday is being interpreted as a warning message that it is capable of breaking through Iran’s air defense and causing damage if it chooses to.

The likelihood of an all-out war appears to be decreasing, with no immediate response from Iran to Israel’s attack.

In a report Saturday, the New York Times cited the analyses of multiple Western and Iranian officials in concluding that the strike by Israel was a calculated action meant to show its military superiority.

The newspaper’s analysis came after it confirmed through satellite images and quotes from an anonymous Iranian official that Israel had struck an S-300 surface-to-air missile system located at the Eighth Shekari Air Base in the central Iranian province of Isfahan. The city of Natanz in Isfahan Province is the site of a key facility for Iran’s uranium enrichment program.

Israel’s strike was a response to a retaliatory attack by Iran 12 days after Israel bombed the Iranian Embassy complex in Damascus on April 1, resulting in the deaths of around 10 people, including three senior commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

While it is not certain what weapon Israel used to strike the Iranian missile system, the attack included the launch of at least one missile equipped with capabilities to circumvent Iran’s air defense network, and it also showed the Iranian armed forces’ failure to detect drones, missiles and fighter aircraft entering its airspace.

The firepower used by Israel was reportedly far more restricted than what Iran showed in its retaliatory strike. While some had feared a potential hair-trigger situation — with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s overt declarations of “clear and powerful” retaliation, as he faced pressure from far-right hard-liners in Israel — Israel appears to have ultimately moderated its response to the level of a warning and show of military capabilities.

Other factors that appear to have played a part in the decision include requests from Western partner nationals to refrain from escalating conflict in the Middle East, as well as the US’ clear statement that it did not intend to be a part of any retaliatory operation against Iran.

Analysts also suggested Israel made the determination that it would be better off focusing on its war with the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which has been going on for nearly seven months.

For now, the clash between the two sides appears to have entered a lull.

During an interview with NBC on the previous day, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian refused to acknowledge that Israel was behind the attacks. He also downplayed the threat of the weapons used. 

“What happened last night was not a strike,” the minister said. “They were more like toys that our children play with.”

“It has not been proven to us that there is a connection between these [weapons] and Israel,” he added. 

Iranian authorities and state-run media have claimed that Iran’s missile defense network shot down three drones that were flying over the city of Isfahan. Iranian reports have also downplayed the attacks by calling them “a small number of explosions.” It’s notable that Iran did not directly reference Israel in the reports, and pointed to the possibility of an “infiltrator” being behind the attacks. The statements were clear attempts to avoid retaliation while saving face. 

Citing an anonymous Western diplomat, Reuters interpreted Iran’s refusal to acknowledge the attack as a refusal to acknowledge the vulnerability of Iran’s defense systems and the superiority of the Israeli military. Reuters concluded that the chances of an Iranian retaliation are low.

On the Israeli front, the Jerusalem Post reported that public support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is at 37%, the highest it’s been since the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas. 

“This surge came amidst ongoing tensions and the recent thwarting of an Iranian attack,” the Jerusalem Post reported.

By Noh Ji-won, staff reporter

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]