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Donald Trump before his address at Trump Tower in New York after winning the Indiana primary and becoming the presumptive Republican candidate for president

After all the controversy over his public statements, Donald Trump is now all but assured the Republican Party nomination for the next US presidential election. Some opinion polls have shown him beating Hillary Clinton, who has similarly locked down the Democratic Party nomination. While there are any number of variables that could emerge to affect the vote in early November, what is clear is that we now need to seriously consider the possibility that Trump will become president.

Trump’s wave of popularity, which may have seemed unthinkable a year ago, is rooted in a number of variables in the US political landscape. As the successful re-election of Barack Obama amid widespread support from minorities and women showed, white males are accounting for an ever-smaller percentage of the US population. Middle-class white males in particular feel a sense of victimhood, a perception that current politics is dominated by elites. Trump has targeted this sense of discontent and worry with demagoguery. The Republican Party seems aware now that there is a problem, but it is starting to accept its presumptive candidate.

Around the world, countries are eying Trump’s foreign affairs and national security policies, which he calls “America First.” He has gone public accusing South Korea and other allies of being “free riders” on security and threatening to withdraw US Forces of Korea or remove nuclear umbrella protections if defense costs are not distributed properly. If he delivers on even part of this threat, the Korean Peninsula’s foreign affairs and national security situation will be in for drastic changes. Trump’s protectionist approach to policy also conflicts with the current international economic order. South Korea could face a situation where it has to reconsider everything from square one.

There’s no way of knowing now whether Trump will win the presidency. Even if elected, he may not implement all of the policies he has described. Regardless, there is a clear trend visible here: the US is finding itself increasingly hard-pressed defending its hegemony in a multi-polar world, and its political stability is being rattled by demographic changes. South Korea needs to recognize this as a reality and brace itself accordingly. It’s tough to imagine what our foreign affairs and security situation would look like without the US, but we can’t take the current structure as gospel anymore.

Trump’s exclusive and inflammatory rhetoric has some likening him to Adolf Hitler. This doesn’t mean he would actually be like Hitler if elected. What our focus should be on is the US political landscape he is giving voice to and transforming.

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