hankyoreh

Dan Smith(right)

“Groundwork is essential for arranging a successful meeting between the leaders of North Korea and the US. We expect that working-level talks will lead to a summit,” said Dan Smith, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Smith was speaking at a press conference hosted on Sept. 16 by Jakob Hallgren, the Swedish ambassador to South Korea, at the ambassador’s residence in Seoul’s Seongbuk District. Smith said that the working-level talks that North Korea and the US are expected to hold at the end of September “will lay an important cornerstone, in line with the series of developments that we saw last year.”

At the end of January, SIPRI and Sweden’s Ministry for Foreign Affairs organized a meeting in Stockholm between officials from South Korea, North Korea, and the US who are engaged in the North Korea nuclear negotiations. That was the first meeting between US State Department Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun, South Korean Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs Lee Do-hoon, and North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui.

“For the moment, it’s impossible to know whether the series of events that have occurred this year are steps down the road toward peace on the Korean Peninsula or just more attempts to move in that direction. Nevertheless, we find ourselves at a juncture when the very fact that officials from South Korea, North Korea, and the US are meeting for talks is likely to be a turning point,” Smith said during the press conference.

Smith was also hopeful about the meeting between working-level negotiators from the two sides that’s scheduled for the end of September. “The fact that Biegun and Choe will be meeting in late September is positive. What’s encouraging is that efforts [to hold talks] are continuing. SIPRI is also keeping a close eye on this, and we’re willing to provide help if necessary,” he added.

But Smith wasn’t sure about the possibility of the working-level talks being held in Sweden, as they were this past January. “Anything could happen, but in all honesty, I’m not sure what’s going on with the talks,” he said.

Smith emphasized the importance of agreeing on a definition about denuclearization in the North Korean nuclear negotiations. When a reporter asked if North Korea is sincere about its stated intention to denuclearize, Smith offered a tentative “yes,” with a caveat: “We need to think about what the denuclearization and peace that we desire would actually mean. We still haven’t reached any kind of definition about denuclearization, which is the most important part [of the North Korea-US negotiations],” he said.

Smith placed particular stress on the fact that the “process” is important for getting results in North Korea-US dialogue. While acknowledging the significance of the “top-down method” that US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had used to advance dialogue, based on their relationship of trust, Smith said that getting results in the negotiations would require the exchange of concrete opinions by lower-level officials.

“During the North Korea-US summit in Hanoi, the two countries ended up canceling a press conference where they’d planned to release a joint statement,” Smith said, noting that the two sides’ failure to reach an agreement at Hanoi “has reminded us once again that, if we are to achieve the results desired by North Korea and the US, there has to be a concrete and time-consuming preparatory process.”

Another issue that came up is how the American troops stationed in South Korea would be impacted by the security guarantee for North Korea that the two sides will be negotiating. “I think that the peace treaty [that North Korea and the US might reach] could place limitations on the American troops that could be stationed in South Korea. However, American troops are stationed in South Korea not only because of North Korea but because of America’s security interests in the region, which include China and Russia. Since a number of countries are wrapped up in this, including Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, the question of how to discuss the Northeast Asia security issue is a sensitive one that demands caution,” Smith said.

Smith also responded to critics who say that, if the US guarantees North Korea’s security in exchange for denuclearization, it would effectively absolve Pyongyang of its responsibility for human rights violations. “I don’t think that peace talks with North Korea mean that we’re condoning the North on a moral level. Many peace treaties have been reached between countries that don’t agree with each other’s methods. I think a peace treaty would be a step toward resolving the human rights issue,” Smith said.

One reporter at the press conference asked whether the recent resignation of John Bolton, a notorious hardliner on North Korea, as White House National Security Advisor can be seen as a positive sign for the North Korea-US negotiations. “I think we can see this as clearing away one major obstacle. I think it’s a sign of forward movement in the future,” Smith said.

In Smith’s eyes, the “new calculation” that North Korea has continued to demand from the US is “rhetoric”: “Ultimately, North Korea is asking the US for a change of attitude and for a change in its approach.”

SIPRI is an independent international body that was established in 1966 to research international security, conflicts and disputes, and the prevention of the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The institute provides policymakers, researchers, and the press with a range of information, analysis, and policy recommendations related to those areas.

As a writer and researcher, Smith has focused on denuclearization, climate change, security threats, Middle East peace and security, and global conflict trends. Prior to being named SIPRI’s director, Smith served first as a member, and later as the chair, of the UN Peacebuilding Fund’s advisory group from 2007 to 2011. Smith also served as secretary-general of International Alert, a British-based peacebuilding NGO, from 2003 to 2015, and as the director of the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo, from 1993-2001.

By Noh Ji-won, staff reporter

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]