South Korean public opinion on Kim Jong-un and Trump more favorable after Singapore summit

Posted on : 2018-07-09 17:53 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
North Korea also surpasses China and Japan in likeability
US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands at the historic North Korea-US summit in the Capella hotel on Singapore’s Sentosa island on June 12. (Hankyoreh archives)
US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands at the historic North Korea-US summit in the Capella hotel on Singapore’s Sentosa island on June 12. (Hankyoreh archives)

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump’s favorability with South Koreans has greatly increased since the North Korea-US summit, a recent poll has found. North Korea also surpassed China and Japan in terms of likeability.

According to a report called “South Koreans’ Perceptions of Neighboring Countries” that was published by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies on July 5, Kim Jong-un had a likeability score of 4.06 points among South Koreans, which was twice as high as the score for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (2.04 points). These were the results of a telephone survey of 1,000 adult men and women around the country that was carried out by Research and Research at the Asan Institute’s request from June 18 to 20.

The survey had a reliability of 95 percent and a sample error of ±3.1 percent. When participants were asked to rate the likeability of the leaders of neighboring countries on a scale of 0 to 10, Kim’s likeability bottomed out at 0.88 points last November, jumped to 2.02 points this past March and then doubled once again in the most recent survey.

“This is even more surprising when you consider that Kim’s likeability has hovered above 1 point since we began the leaders’ likeability survey in 2013. The change occurred when Kim Jong-un began to engage in dialogue at the beginning of this year in order to escape from the sanctions on North Korea,” the institute said.

Likeability of neighboring countries (scale of 0-10)
Likeability of neighboring countries (scale of 0-10)

The leader of an ally that South Koreans found the most likeable was Trump (5.16 points). This also represents a considerable rise in Trump’s likeability, which was at 3.76 points in March. The implication is that Trump’s image was improved by his summit with Kim.

In contrast, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s likeability among South Koreans was at 3.89, which was largely the same as last November (4.02 points) and this March (3.29 points). The variation in Abe’s likeability over the same period was even slighter. After scoring 2.04 points last November, his score dropped to 1.79 points in March of this year before rebounding to 2.04 points in the June survey.

Appraisals of North Korea-US summit (units: %)
Appraisals of North Korea-US summit (units: %)
North Korea’s likeability increases even among conservatives

Similar trends were detected in the likeability of South Korea’s neighbors. The country to which respondents were the most favorably disposed was the US, at 5.97 points, trailed by North Korea, at 4.71 points. “This was the first time since the neighboring country likeability survey began in 2010 that North Korea’s likeability topped 4 points. One interesting finding is that North Korea’s likeability was also high, at 4.32 points, among South Korea’s conservatives, who had taken a hardline stance toward the North,” the institute said.

The survey found that China and Japan’s likeability were at 4.16 points and 3.55 points, respectively. This was the first time that North Korea’s likeability surpassed China’s and the first time in four years that it topped Japan’s.

Appraisals of North Korea-US summit based on age group and political inclination
Appraisals of North Korea-US summit based on age group and political inclination

South Koreans’ were also found to approve of the Kim-Trump summit that was held in Singapore on June 12. Seven out of 10 respondents (71.8 percent) said the summit had gotten results, which significantly outnumbered those who thought there were no results (21.5 percent). The fact North Korea and the US, former adversaries, met for the first time is thought to be a factor in this positive assessment. By age groups, however, women in their 20s (59.7 percent) were relatively less inclined to view the results of the Kim-Trump summit favorably.

Trustworthiness of North Korea as dialogue partner (units: percentage)
Trustworthiness of North Korea as dialogue partner (units: percentage)
Shifting attitudes towards denuclearization and North Korea’s trustworthiness

The perception that North Korea’s denuclearization is impossible fell by more than half from 23.7 percent in March, before the summit, to 10.2 percent in June, afterward. Over the same period, the expected timeframe of North’s denuclearization shrank from 10.9 years to 6.5 years.

Six out of 10 respondents predicted that North Korea would faithfully carry out the agreement, a finding that the institute believes is related to North Korea’s trustworthiness. In the 2013 survey, just 10.7 percent of respondents said that the North could be trusted as a partner for dialogue, but this increased to 54 percent in this survey. In contrast, the percentage who said that the North cannot be trusted decreased by about half from 85.1 percent (2013) to 43.5 percent (2018).

Reasons for satisfaction with Moon Jae-in‘s North Korea policy (units: percentage)
Reasons for satisfaction with Moon Jae-in‘s North Korea policy (units: percentage)

The majority of respondents said that inter-Korean relations (83.2 percent) and North Korea-US relations (76.7 percent) will “get better” in the future. When asked about the Moon administration’s policy toward North Korea, 72.3 percent said they were “satisfied.”

More distrust in North Korea among younger people

“Though the majority of South Koreans have a positive view of the current situation, viewpoints do vary with the age group. The likeability of North Korea (3.95 points) and Kim Jong-un (3 points) were relatively lower among people in their twenties (3.95 points), who also tended not to trust North Korea (54.4 percent),” the institute said.

Outlook on inter-Korean and North Korea-US relations (units: percentage)
Outlook on inter-Korean and North Korea-US relations (units: percentage)

In regard to the suspension of South Korea-US joint military exercises, support (51.9 percent) surpassed opposition (44.2 percent) among all respondents, while opposition (58.4 percent) exceeded support (39.1 percent) among respondents in their 20s.

“Considering that we have arrived at a critical juncture in which it is necessary to reconfigure inter-Korean relations, the Moon administration needs to pay attention to how people in their 20s view North Korea,” the institute said.

By Kim Ji-eun, staff reporter

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]

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