North Korea launches two missiles…were they “successful”?

Posted on : 2016-06-23 17:12 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Launches indicate possibility of technological progress, but still too early to draw a conclusion
An image from the June 23 Rodong Sinmun newspaper of the launch of a Musudan missile. The newspaper reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un provided on-site instruction. (Yonhap News)
An image from the June 23 Rodong Sinmun newspaper of the launch of a Musudan missile. The newspaper reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un provided on-site instruction. (Yonhap News)

On the morning of June 22, North Korea launched what were presumed to be two Musudan intermediate range ballistic missiles. These were the fifth and sixth Musudan missiles (Hwasong 10) that it has launched this year. The second missile launched on Wednesday traveled for 400km, the first one to do so, suggesting that Pyongyang has made some technological progress.

Between Apr. 15 and May 31, North Korea launched four missiles, presumably Musudan missiles, all of which failed either by exploding in midair or by falling into the ocean. But one of the two Musudan missiles launched yesterday - the sixth altogether - traveled for 400km. This appears to demonstrate that North Korea managed to use the failed launches to make considerable progress on correcting the missiles’ technical flaws.

But it is still unclear whether the launch can be regarded as a success. During the press briefing on Wednesday, Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani said that the second missile that was launched is thought to “show that the Musudan had a certain degree of functionality as an intermediate-range ballistic missile.” Nakatani did not offer a clear answer about whether the launch was successful, however.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff also declined to provide a definite answer about whether the second missile launch had been successful, noting that South Korea and the US are continuing to analyze the launches.

The reason for the South Korean and Japanese governments‘ cautious assessments is that the second missile did not enter a normal orbit. The range of the Musudan is estimated to be in excess of 3,000km, but the second Musudan that was launched only traveled for 400km. The distance is far too short to declare it a success.

But the fact that the missile reached an elevation of more than 1,000km means that it is very likely that North Korea deliberately launched the missile at a high angle instead of at the normal angle.

The normal angle at which a missile is launched brings it to an elevation that is from one-fourth to one-third of the missile’s range. Launched at a normal angle, a missile with a range of 400km would attain an altitude between 100km and 130km.

But if North Korea deliberately used a high-angle launch to send the missile to an altitude above 1,000km, the fact that the missile only traveled for 400km does not necessarily mean that it was a failure.

When a reporter asked whether the missile‘s 400km flight path meant that it had crashed in the middle of its flight, Nakatani said, “We believe that the missile has that ability [of an intermediate-range ballistic missile] because it reached an altitude of more than 1,000km.”

Another notable aspect of the Musudan launch is its connection with North Korea’s development of reentry technology. If military analysts find that the Musudan missile made a normal impact after climbing to an elevation of 1,000km, then North Korea has very likely acquired reentry technology for intermediate-range ballistic missiles.

Prior to this, the South Korean military acknowledged that North Korea possesses the reentry technology for short-range ballistic missiles and medium-range ballistic missiles while expressing doubt about the North‘s claims to have reentry technology for intermediate-range ballistic missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles, which it said were “unconfirmed.”

In March, North Korea released the results of a mock test of atmosphere reentry by a missile warhead and claimed that it had acquired the technology for reentry of warheads.

Whether or not this launch was successful, North Korea will have to conduct additional launch tests to ensure stable use of the Musudan. “Normally, missiles have to be successfully launched several times before they can be regarded as reliable. One or two successes are not enough to conclude that you have a missile that is dependable for military use,” said a military officer.

Immediately after North Korea’s two Musudan missile launches, the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the US State Department each released statements strongly condemning the launches and describing them as a violation of a UN Security Council resolution that bans North Korea from using ballistic missile technology. Seoul and Washington also promised that the UN Security Council would take action.

“Through its continuing nuclear weapon and missile provocations, including this intermediate-range ballistic missile launch, North Korea is showing the international community just how deceptive and hypocritical its multiple overtures for dialogue are,” the South Korean government said in a statement by the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The South Korean government discussed countermeasures in a meeting of the standing committee of the National Security Council, presided over by Kim Kwan-jin, head of the National Security Office. The Japanese did the same in a meeting of related ministries, presided over by Shotaro Yachi, head of Japan‘s National Security Council.

By Park Byong-su, senior staff writer, Yi Yong-in and Gil Yun-hyung, Washington and Tokyo correspondents

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

 

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