hankyoreh

Amid thick fog

The closing of the Kaesong Industrial Complex – which had functioned as a sort of military buffer zone on the western side of South Korea’s border with North Korea – has increased the likelihood of a military clash between the two armies. Furthermore, the severing of all direct lines of communication between the two sides has severely diminished their ability to manage unexpected clashes. This means that there is a greater risk of a local conflict escalating into a real war.

“Since North Korea announced that it’s cutting the military communication lines and the telephone line at Panmunjeom, at the moment all lines of communication that had connected the North and South Korean authorities are severed,” South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense spokesperson Mun Sang-gyun said on Feb. 12.

Military communication lines had previously been maintained in the West Sea and East Sea regions, but the West Sea lines were cut in May 2011, as the suspension of tourism to Mount Geumgang dragged on. Furthermore, Seoul and Pyongyang had installed communication lines in 2006 that linked South Korea’s 2nd Fleet Command and North Korea’s West Sea Fleet Command in order to prevent an unexpected clash in the West Sea, but these lines were cut in 2008.

And now that North Korea has cut the only remaining military communication lines in the West Sea region as well as the direct telephone line at Panmunjeom, all the direct telephone lines between the South and North Korean authorities are down.

“Moving forward, dialogue between North and South Korea will have to take place through announcements of government statements and official positions,” said a senior official with South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense.

The direct lines of communication between South and North Korea have also been cut in the past. During the standoff triggered by North Korea’s nuclear test in 2013, the North severed the military communication lines and the direct telephone lines at Panmunjeom, only to reactivate these later.

But this time, the cutting of the lines coincides with the shutdown of the Kaesong Complex, with inter-Korean relations at a nadir, leading to concerns that the breakdown in communication between the two sides will continue indefinitely.

“There used to be communication lines in Panmunjeom between the liaison officers for the UN Command and for North Korea. These were cut in 2013 when North Korea announced that it was scrapping the armistice agreement, leading to the absurd situation where they have to deliver messages by shouting them into a megaphone. The same thing could happen to North and South Korea,” said a senior official with the South Korean military.

The absence of channels of communication between South and North Korea is especially troubling since it comes at the same time as the shutdown of the Kaesong Industrial Complex. Since there is no way for South or North Korea to confirm each other’s true intentions in a situation of high tensions, an unexpected clash would not be easy to contain and could lead to escalation.

While North Korea has declared the Kaesong Complex to be a military controlled zone, no unusual movements have been reported in the North Korean military. However, there is talk that the North Korea units that were pulled back more than 10km during the development of the Kaesong Complex could once again be deployed to the front.

Located just over 40km from the outskirts of Seoul, the Kaesong Complex is an important location in military terms. There is also a direct route from Kaesong to Seoul, via Munsan, which would allow North Korea to strike Seoul in the shortest amount of time.

As recently as the early 2000s, before the Kaesong Complex was built, North Korea maintained military units here. While the North Korean military was reportedly opposed to the construction of the complex, then-North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is said to have pushed the plan through anyway.

“At the time of the construction of the Kaesong Complex, North Korea adjusted the deployment of four battalions from the 6th Division, which had been located here, and assigned two battalions to guard the perimeter,” Mun said. From South Korea’s point of view, the closing of the Kaesong Complex means that a barrier has been removed from a major route that North Korea could use to invade the South in wartime.

While it is uncertain whether North Korea will immediately deploy forces to the area, if its dispute with South Korea drags out, the North is unlikely to leave the area empty indefinitely.

“During the Korean War, Kaesong was taken without a struggle, and Seoul fell just three days after the war began. If the armored and artillery units with the 6th Division are redeployed to the front, they will put considerable pressure on South Korean troops,” said Kim Jong-dae, head of a national defense reform task force with the Justice Party.

“Cutting the direct telephone lines between Seoul and Pyongyang under these circumstances increases the risk of a clash occurring because of a misunderstanding.”

By Park Byong-su, senior staff reporter

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