hankyoreh

with 3

With stocks taking a dive and public anxiety growing on Aug. 21 after an exchange of artillery fire the previous day between North and South Korean forces around the armistice line in Yeoncheon County, Gyeonggi Province, the index of risk factors on the Korean peninsula – called the ‘Korea risk’ – is sharply increasing.

Experts suggest that South Korea, which has the advantage both in economic and military terms, must be stern in its response while remaining open to dialogue in order to skillfully manage the crisis and resolve the conflict between North and South Korea.

Tensions have risen considerably since the two militaries traded artillery fire. On Aug. 20, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un convened an emergency session of the KWP Central Military Commission and announced a “state of quasi-war” on the front lines.

South Korean President Park Geun-hye also visited the command of the third field army in Yongin, Gyeonggi Province, on the afternoon of Aug. 21 and instructed the military to make a “resolute response.”

The economy is in turmoil. Combining with expectations of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and signs of slowing growth in the Chinese economy, the unrest drove the KOSPI index down to 1876.07 on Aug. 21, its lowest point this year.

Public anxiety is also growing as North Korea’s ultimatum of 5 pm on Aug. 22 draws near. That was when Pyongyang threatened to take military action if Seoul keeps broadcasting propaganda into North Korea. In Yanggu Province, Gangwon Province, the trajectory of an unidentified object appeared on military radar but turned out to have only been a glitch, much to everyone’s relief.

But there are also signs of more maturity in the public response. For example, people have not been stockpiling essential items as they did before 2000. Presumably, the South Korean public is confident that the South Korean military as well as its overall national prestige give it an edge over North Korea.

Nevertheless, considering the poor state of inter-Korean relations, experts are concerned that, if military tensions continue to rise, an accidental clash could escalate to the level of a localized skirmish. Some think that this could bring the Korea risk to a critical point that would inflict a deadly blow on the Korean economy, which has already proven vulnerable to global variables.

This is leading some to call on South Korea to take the lead in finding a way out of this crisis while keeping its military poised to respond if necessary.

“Resolving problems through dialogue is not a sign of weakness but of strength. It is not North Korea but South Korea that has more to lose from military tensions. Considering that, we need to suppress North Korea’s provocations through a two-track strategy of dialogue and firm readiness,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

“We should certainly retaliate against North Korea’s provocations, but we need to exercise restraint and not make the area of conflict larger than necessary,” suggested Chung Seong-chang, Director of Unification Strategy Studies at the Sejong Institute.　

Specifically, North Korea sent a letter in the name of Kim Yang-gon, Pyongyang’s secretary for South Korean affairs, stating that it was “willing to resolve the current situation and work toward opening avenues for improving relations.” While North Korea may seem to be trying to sow confusion by offering peace and threatening war at the same time, the South Korean government needs to take advantage of this, some experts advise.

“North Korea’s talk about improving relations could be an attempt to manufacture a crisis and then turn it into an opportunity to turn inter-Korean relations around. We need to subvert North Korea’s intentions so that we can move away from this high-tension situation,” said Jung Uk-sik, director of the Peace Network.

“We need to soothe public anxiety by treating this situation as an opportunity to transform inter-Korean relations. Representatives from North Korea’s National Defense Commission and the Blue House (Security Chief Kim Kwan-jin) should sit down for high-level talks to discuss all of the issues that North and South Korea want and to resolve them through a major deal,” Yang said.

Various experts said that North Korea also needs to make some concessions to avoid provoking more distrust and hostility from South Koreans for its rash military actions.

By Kim Ji-hoon, staff reporter

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]