hankyoreh

By Kang Tae-ho, senior staff writer

On May 24, Choe Ryong-hae, vice marshal of the Korean People’s Army, was sent to China as the special envoy of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, where he met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Considering that Choe made mention of the six-party talks during his meeting with the Chinese, there is an increased likelihood of North Korea changing its policy. But the fact that Choe did not make a single mention of nuclear weapons despite China’s strong request for denuclearization of the Korean peninsula does not bode well for discussions of denuclearization on the Korean peninsula.

In January, North Korea announced through a statement by its foreign ministry that, “by intensifying its hostile policies toward North Korea, the US had brought about the nullification of the six-party talks and the Sep. 19 joint statement and had ended the process of denuclearization.”

“While there may be talks to ensure the peace and stability of the Korean peninsula and the region, there will be no talks to discuss denuclearization,” Pyongyang said.

These forceful remarks made clear that the North was willing to take part in discussions of arms reductions or peace provided it is treated as a nuclear power, but that it would not be a party to talks that are grounded on the premise that the North will give up its nuclear arsenal.

In contrast with these statements, North Korea has indicated through Choe’s visit to China that it wants to address these issues through various formats of negotiations and talks including the six-party talks. This message can first of all be assessed as progress toward a transition on the Korean peninsula.

The six-party talks are first and foremost negotiations in which South Korea, the US, China, Japan, and Russia offer North Korea economic assistance and a guarantee of security in return for North Korea abandoning its nuclear program. For this reason, if the six-party talks resume, it is inevitable that the main item on the agenda will be the issue of North Korean nuclear weapons.

This change in North Korea’s attitude seems to indicate that, after ratcheting up tensions to the highest possible point following its rocket launch in Dec. 2012 and making it clear that they are willing to face the possibility of war, North Korea has now decided that the time has come to look for an exit strategy. It is also probable that China’s decision to take real action to enforce sanctions, including freezing accounts at North Korea’s Foreign Trade Bank and adjusting its supply of petroleum products, has exerted a considerable amount of pressure on North Korea.

Since Nov. 2012, relations between North Korea and China had taken an unusual turn, with contact between senior officials being suspended. But now that North Korea appears to be complying with China’s recent requests, it looks as if the two countries will take steps to bring their relations back to normal. There is also a greater likelihood that Kim Jong-un will visit China for a summit with Xi Jinping.

Nevertheless, not all of the points of disagreement between the two countries have been resolved. Choe did not bring up the issue of denuclearization even once during his visit to China.

This is in contrast with Xi Jinping and Liu Yunshan, first secretary of the central secretariat of the Communist Party of China, who never failed to refer to denuclearization of the Korean peninsula along with resuming the six-party talks.

“While what Choe said is of course important, what he did not say is also important,” said an unidentified South Korean government official. “It remains to be seen whether there is any sincerity to North Korea’s attitude, or whether this is just a bid to avoid the isolation in which they currently find themselves,” the official said with some reservations.

However, the fact that Choe did not bring up the issue of denuclearization can also be seen as indicating that North Korea intends to wait on this issue until they can discuss it directly with the party that it most concerns the US.

“Even if it had been Kim Jong-un [instead of Choe], he wouldn’t have said anything about denuclearization,” said Moon Chung-in, a professor at Yonsei University. “Denuclearization will be discussed after the six-party talks have resumed.”

“It is a long process that cannot be resolved at once, and there was no reason for him to talk about it during the visit to China,” said Moon.

In the past, North Korea has announced that it was withdrawing from the six-party talks, only to return to the talks later. After the UN Security Council (UNSC) released a statement announcing sanctions against North Korea following the North’s launch of a rocket in Apr. 2009, the North Korean foreign ministry released a statement of its own, saying that the country would not take part in the six-party talks again. But under pressure from China, North Korea participated in denuclearization talks in 2011 with the US and with South Korea as part of efforts to reopen the six-party talks.

The question now is what China will do. Since North Korea has given its assent to reopening the six-party talks, China has been given more scope for action in regard to affairs on the Korean peninsula. It seems likely that China will move to convince the US to take steps to reopen the six-party talks during the summit meeting between US President Barack Obama and Xi Jinping on Jun. 7, 2013.

The US and China were able to use the summit meeting on Jan. 2011 to move beyond the tensions caused by the sinking of the Cheonan and the bombing of Yeonpyeong Island and to make it possible for dialogue to take place.

“Once we see the results of the summit meeting between China and the US next month, the big picture for affairs on the Korean peninsula will begin to take shape,” said Kim Yong-hyeon, a professor at Dongguk University.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]