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A THAAD missile interceptor is tested. (US Missile Defense Agency)

South Korea’s ruling and main opposition parties have come out with two very similar sets of pledges on the areas of unification, foreign affairs, and national security for next week’s general elections: equal emphasis on security, equal silence on the sensitive issue of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system deployment.

The positions offer a clear glimpse at their respective strategies, with the ruling Saenuri Party (NFP) opting to emphasize security and the economy and the opposition the Minjoo Party of Korea (TMPK) focusing on economic democratization while seeking to draw even on security.

In terms of inter-Korean relations and the recent shutdown of the Kaesong Industrial Complex, the Saenuri’s focus has been squarely on stronger and more targeted sanctions against the North. TMPK, in contrast, has actively called for reopening the complex and resuming economic cooperation as a matter for the economy, not politics.

Meanwhile, the People‘s Party, established in February by Ahn Cheol-soo and Kim Han-gil, has not made any pledges at all on unification, foreign affairs, or national security. Instead, its strategy has been to stake everything on the economy issue. The Justice Party boasts a clear picture on unification and foreign policy devised after bringing on board security expert Kim Jong-dae, currently the No. 2 candidate on the ballot for proportional representation.

The Saenuri’s strategic focus - a hard line on North Korea and emphasis on security issues - is consistent with its traditional pattern. In contrast, the more passive stance from the TMPK and People‘s Party is quite different from past opposition election strategies, particularly at a time when the Korean Peninsula has been experiencing turmoil and heightened tensions in the three months since the North’s fourth nuclear test.

The unusually low-key approach from the TMPK under emergency committee chairperson Kim Jong-in appears to stem from a number of factors: a longstanding belief that security issues only help the Saeuri Party, a campaign strategy of focusing on economic democratization issues, and the political determination that the public at large has responded negatively to the Park Geun-hye administration‘s North Korea, foreign affairs, and national security policies. The People’s Party‘s failure to make any pledges at all on unification, foreign affairs, or security leaves it vulnerable to charges of irresponsibility.

The problem now is that the ruling party’s uniformly hard line on Pyongyang and the opposition‘s passive bystander approach have left a vacuum in terms of the societal discussions and momentum needed if solutions are to be found in terms of stabilizing the Korean Peninsula - which now faces an unprecedented crisis - and restoring inter-Korean relations from their current complete breakdown.

Even though the possible deployment of the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Air Defense) missile defense system with US forces on the Korean Peninsula has been the most contentious issue since North Korea’s fourth nuclear test, none of the three major parties referred to this in their campaign pledges.

Each of the parties has a different set of calculations. While both President Park Geun-hye and Saenuri Party leader Kim Moo-sung are staunch supporters of holding deliberations about THAAD deployment - which they think is the “obvious” choice - they appear to have concluded that growing controversy, including a backlash in areas where the system might be deployed, will not help in the general elections.

The Minjoo Party, led by Kim Jong-in, has not clearly stated whether it supports or opposes THAAD deployment. The wait-and-see attitude that Kim has taken - he has called for a “cool assessment” of the THAAD deployment - appears related to his election strategy of not focusing on security issues.

While both the Saenuri Party and the Minjoo Party made no mention of THAAD deployment in their platforms, they both promised to develop a Korea Air and Missile Defense system.

People‘s Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo has responded to questions about THAAD by arguing that “a popular consensus should be achieved through public discussion.”

The Justice Party is the only party with seats in the National Assembly that has expressed its opposition to deploying THAAD. During the press conference at which it announced its campaign platform, the party denounced President Park’s support for THAAD as an “arbitrary hardline response.”　

When the decision was made with the blessing of President Park to fully suspend operations at the Kaesong Complex immediately after North Korea launched a long-range rocket, the Saenuri Party welcomed the decision. The government has only promised to provide “assistance” for tenant companies at the complex, not “compensation.”

But the Saenuri Party‘s election platform contains not a single mention of the companies hurt by the shutdown of the Kaesong Complex. This is likely because the party has concluded that it has nothing to gain from making an issue of the complex.

The Minjoo Party has pledged that it will restore normal operations at the Kaesong Complex if it wins the parliamentary elections this year and the presidential election next year. Emphasizing the complex’s relevance to the economy, the party has promised to push for resuming economic cooperation with North Korea and to compensate the tenant companies at the complex for their damages.

In short, the party is approaching the issue in terms of the economy, and not security.

The People Party‘s platform for the parliamentary election contains no mention of the Kaesong Complex. However, party leader Ahn Cheol-soo did criticize the complete suspension of operations at the complex as “a choice that does not help the national interest.”

The Justice Party promised to revive, stimulate and systematize inter-Korean cooperation and exchange in the economy and other areas. “We will revoke the self-defeating measure of suspending operations at the Kaesong Complex and will take steps to get it running again soon,” the party said.　

“We need to get rid of this idea of always harping on reconciliation and cooperation with North Korea,” said Kim Moo-sung, Saenuri Party leader. He was explaining why he has promised to use “pressure diplomacy against the North in order to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.”

While the Saenuri Party pledged to “consider pursuing the idea of the divided families visiting their ancestral homes when inter-Korean relations are eventually normalized,” it did not announce any willingness to pursue inter-Korean dialogue.

Minjoo Party leader Kim Jong-in also has an ambiguous stance about inter-Korean dialogue. During the Kwanhun debate on Mar. 16, Kim expressed a lukewarm attitude toward dialogue, saying, “I figure we should probably have talks.”

This is sharply different from former Minjoo Party leader Moon Jae-in, who said, “We must move forward with talks and negotiations aimed at finding a fundamental solution to the North Korean nuclear issue.”

This helps explain seemingly contradictory sections in the party’s platform. The platform promises to “push for holding inter-Korean talks and North Korea-US talks and to swiftly resume the Six-Party Talks in order to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue and to establish peace on the Korean Peninsula” but also promises to “strengthen a national consensus about unification and North Korean policy.” The phrasing is considerably more cautious than in the past.

The Minjoo Party pledged to take steps to hold inter-Korean summit meetings on a regular basis and to systematize inter-Korean dialogue in a variety of areas.

While some senior officials in the People‘s Party have called for reopening channels for inter-Korean dialogue, party leader Ahn Cheol-soo has never officially addressed the issue. Furthermore, the issue does not appear in the party’s platform for the parliamentary elections.

The Justice Party expressed a vision of South Korea as “a mid-sized country of peace and mediation” in the context of “peace and coexistence on the Korean Peninsula and in East Asia.” The party said that dialogue must be resumed in order to find peaceful solutions, including denuclearization, shifting to peaceful relations, resolving the hostile relationship between North Korea and the US and helping the two establish diplomatic relations.

By Kim Jin-cheol, staff reporter

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