hankyoreh

chairman of the Presidential Transition Committee (standing at the microphone) and assistant administrators present the incoming Park Geun-hye administration’s plans on Feb. 21 at a press conference in Seoul’s Samcheong neighborhood. (photo pool)

By Park Byong-su, staff reporter

On Feb. 21, the transition committee for President-elect Park Geun-hye announced the new administration’s plans for inter-Korean relations, foreign relations, and national security.

Included among them were significant increases in defense spending, keeping to schedule on the 2015 reversion of wartime operational command from the United States Forces Korea (USFK) to South Korea, and shortening the mandatory military service period for young males from 21 to 18 months.

In particular, the 118th task on the committee’s list involved “future-oriented strengthening of defense capabilities to reflect changes in the strategic environment.” For this, the administration plans to increase the defense budget “above the rate of increase in national spending to show its firm determination regarding national security.”

Park previously hinted at such an increase during a committee debate on Feb. 18, mentioning “unexpected spending variables such as increased defense outlays due to the North Korean nuclear issue,” a reference to that country’s third nuclear test, which was held on Feb. 12.

Under the Lee Myung-bak administration, the increase in defense spending has averaged 5.2% over the past five years, less than the 5.8% rate for the government budget as a whole. The Park administration’s move is expected to trigger controversy, since it would change this trend and make the rate of increase in defense spending higher than the overall rate.

Some observers are already expressing concern that the increased defense spending could prevent Park from honoring another one of her election time pledges - increased social services - without tax hikes or other means of adding revenue. They are also noting the differences between the current plan and Park’s original pledge for “guaranteeing a stable defense budget at a level suited to our national security situation.”

Other plans from the committee for increasing national defense capabilities included instituting a “detection-identification-strike” system - the so-called “kill chain” - for North Korean nuclear weapons, beefing up missile capabilities, and developing a Korean-model missile defense system. For the introduction of new weaponry, policy-making, planning, and assessment duties would be shifted from the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) to the Ministry of National Defense, leaving the former in charge of execution.

On the reversion of wartime operational command to South Korea, the committee described “carrying out the tasks identified by ‘Strategic Alliance 2015’ without delay, forming a single theater headquarters under South Korean military leadership, and operating an allied battle staff.” Experts said this meant Park plans to go ahead with the scheduled handover in December 2015.

“Strategic Alliance 2015” is the comprehensive plan for a handover of wartime operational command as agreed upon at a South Korea-U.S. Security Consultative Meeting in October 2010. Park’s pledge only mentioned “preparations for a smooth reversion of wartime operational command in 2015.”

Another of the plans on the committee’s list involved reducing the mandatory military service period for men to 18 months, an idea Park announced the day before the election. But with the plan listed as being for the “medium to long term,” questions remain over whether it will be implemented during her term as initially promised.

When it comes to North Korea policy, plans included continued humanitarian support for infants, expectant mothers, and other vulnerable groups, as well as the creation of inter-Korean dialogue channels and the encouragement of mutual exchange and collaboration efforts. The committee also mentioned the need to faithfully follow the terms of inter-Korean agreements, raising the possibility of some bridging of differences between Seoul and Pyongyang on observance of the declarations of June 15, 2000, and October 4, 2007.

But with most of the plans contingent on developments in the North Korean nuclear situation, experts predicted it would take some time for any substantive improvements in relations with Pyongyang.

The committee also announced a number of ideas in the area of foreign affairs, including a scheme for Northeast Asian peace and cooperation, as well as tripartite collaboration systems with North Korea and Russia and with North Korea and China. It also talked about improving relations with Washington and Beijing and stabilizing relations with Tokyo.

On the North Korean nuclear issue, the committee announced plans to phase in a three-way strategic dialogue system with Washington and Beijing. Experts saw this as a move to strengthen political dialogue with China and take advantage of its leverage over North Korea.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]