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By Kim Jong-chul, political correspondent

Following the Chuseok holiday, there has been a slight shift in support for the three presidential candidates: Park Geun-hye, Ahn Cheol-soo and Moon Jae-in. The results from different polls draw a jagged line, but can be summarized as a stop in the slide of support for the New Frontier Party’s (NFP) candidate Park Geun-hye, a slight bump in support for Moon Jae-in of the Democratic United Party (DUP) and minor drop for Ahn Cheol-soo, an independent candidate.

According to a survey of 1,000 people conducted Oct. 1 by the Chosun Ilbo and Media Research, (margin of error: ±3.1) if the election ends up in a two-way race between Park and Ahn, Ahn would take the race with 47.4 percent compared to Park’s 44.7 percent. The race would be narrower if Park and Moon Jae-in are pitted against each other with the projected winner being Park with 46.4 percent compared to Moon’s 46.1 percent. Both two-way contests fall within the margin of error. In a similar survey carried out Sept. 21-22, Ahn was the projected winner in a two-way race by a margin of 8.7 percent, while Moon edged out Park by 0.3 percent when the two faced off in supposed race. Park has seen a slight increase in popularity following the Chuseok holiday.

In a survey (margin of error: ±3.1) of 1,000 people administered Oct. 1 by the Kukmin Ilbo and Global Research, Park took 46.2 percent of the vote, while Ahn came in at 44.3 percent in a face-off between the two. If the race comes down to a Park-Moon showdown, the respondents gave Park the edge with 47.8 percent of the vote and Moon with 41.2 percent. In a similar poll run by the same firms on Sept. 22, Park lost to Ahn, 45.1 to 49.9 percent, while slightly beating Moon, 47.5 to 47.2 percent. Park’s support has remained constant across the surveys, whereas numbers for Moon and Ahn have fluctuated.

Meanwhile, in a survey of 1,065 respondents conducted by YTN and the Asan Institute for Policy Studies between Sept. 29 and Oct. 1, Park slid to 40.7 percent, while Ahn garnered 49.1 percent of the vote in a contest between the two. Compared to where it stood before the holiday break (43.9 percent for Park and 47.1 for Ahn: a 3.2 percent gap), the current margin has grown.

Overall, it looks as if Park has managed to put the breaks on her slide, while Moon has continued to move up in the polls. According to Yoon Hee-woong, chief research analyst at the Korea Society Opinion Institute, “After her apology for the past [her father’s Yunshin regime], she managed to stop her fall, but has not yet been able to show any meaningful rebound,”

Yoon added, “When it comes to Ahn, with the offensive to verify his credentials, there has been a slight drop in his numbers, but his support base is also showing signs of solidifying. Moon’s numbers haven‘t moved much but are steadily showing an upward trend.”

Moon’s move upward has been even more pronounced among opposition supporters. In a candidate suitability survey of opposition supporters, moderates, and voters with no party affiliation conducted by the Chosun Ilbo on Oct. 1, between the two opposition candidates, Ahn led Moon by 3.6 percentage points with 47.0 of support, compared to Moon’s 43.4 percent. These results, however, were a major shift from the 10.6 percent lead Ahn had in a similar poll taken ten days earlier that showed Ahn with 48.1 percent, compared to Moon’s 37.5 percent.

On this issue, department chief at Media Research, Lee Yang-hoon said, “The qualification verifications have hurt Ahn, while the support of the Democratic United Party and his comparatively greater experience in government has helped earn him more support from the opposition base,” but added that, “It’s still too early to say that the support is clearly behind a certain candidate.”

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