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Chinese Foreign Minister and State Councilor Wang Yi

Chinese Foreign Minister and State Councilor Wang Yi will be visiting South Korea for the first time since the two countries’ dispute over South Korea’s stationing of the US’ THAAD missile defense system in 2016. This is Wang’s first official visit to South Korea since May 2014, five and a half years ago. His visit is being taken as a sign of improvement in South Korea-China relations and as heralding a visit to South Korea by Chinese President Xi Jinping sometime before March of next year.

South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) announced on Nov. 28 that Wang will be visiting South Korea on Dec. 4-5. “We’re planning a detailed exchange of opinions on a variety of topics, including South Korea-China relations, Korean Peninsula affairs, and regional and international issues,” MOFA said.

During a regular press conference on Thursday, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Geng Shuang confirmed that Wang would be visiting South Korea on the invitation of South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha. “During the visit, State Councilor Wang will meet with ROK leaders [. . .] to exchange in-depth views on bilateral relations and issues of mutual concern.”

Wang reportedly is also trying to arrange a courtesy call to South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Dec. 5.

Wang’s visit to South Korea has a number of goals. The first is carrying out preliminary deliberations for a trilateral summit between South Korea, China, and Japan that will be held in China at the end of December. But the focus will likely be on Xi’s visit to South Korea early next year and on a thaw in the two countries’ bilateral relations on the occasion of that visit.

“This is a signal that South Korea-China relations are moving past the THAAD conflict and are gaining fresh vitality. Other purposes are to hash out the agenda for the South Korea-China-Japan summit and for China to gain a better understanding of South Korea’s recent relations with the US and Japan in connection with GSOMIA,” said Yang Gap-yong, senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Strategy. Yang was referring to the General Security of Military Information Agreement, an information-sharing agreement between South Korea and Japan.

Xi visited South Korea in July 2014, but he hasn’t been to Seoul since Moon Jae-in became president. Moon paid a visit to China in December 2017. “Since Xi is planning to visit Japan in March 2020, it’s possible that he’ll pay a solo visit to South Korea prior to that. That could even happen before the end of the year,” said Lee Hee-ok, a professor at Sungkyunkwan University.

Wang’s visit to South Korea is expected to reinforce strategic cooperation between South Korea and China on the North Korean nuclear issue. “The aftermath of the THAAD dispute was one factor in the lull in South Korea-China relations, but another factor was their failure to come up with a method of strategic cooperation on the North Korean nuclear issue. Because North Korea’s announcement of a ‘new path’ raises the possibility that the situation could deteriorate, China will seek a strategic understanding with South Korea and will propose working together to convince North Korea to engage in dialogue,” Lee predicted.

Another interpretation is that, as the US and China’s struggle for hegemony deepens, China’s efforts to improve relations with South Korea may be part of a larger strategy of stepping up diplomacy with its neighbors. China reportedly hopes that South Korea will participate in its One Belt, One Road initiative through bilateral cooperation in third countries. The question of lifting restrictions on group tours to South Korea and a ban on South Korean cultural exports that China imposed during the THAAD conflict are expected to naturally come up in the discussion.

China is also expected to take a principled and forceful stance in regard to American efforts to deploy intermediate-range missiles in East Asia. A strongly worded warning was given on that very question by Qiu Guohong, Chinese ambassador to South Korea, during a seminar organized on Thursday by the South Korea Future Innovation Forum. “If the US deploys strategic weapons aimed at China in South Korean territory, you can imagine what the consequences will be,” Qiu said.

In related news, China has reportedly tapped Xing Haiming, currently serving as ambassador to Mongolia, to be its next ambassador to South Korea. Xing has served in South Korea on several occasions and is fluent in Korean.

By Park Min-hee and Kim So-young, staff reporters, and Jung In-hwan, Beijing correspondent

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]