[News analysis] The strategy behind Russia and China’s intrusion into Korean airspace

Posted on : 2019-07-25 15:58 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Moscow and Beijing are showing their cooperation in opposition to the US’ Indo-Pacific Strategy
A Chinese guided missile destroyer is welcomed at the naval base in St. Petersburg on Russia’s Navy Day. (Yonhap News)
A Chinese guided missile destroyer is welcomed at the naval base in St. Petersburg on Russia’s Navy Day. (Yonhap News)

The intrusion on the Korea Air Defense Identification Zone (KADIZ) on July 23 by Chinese and Russian military aircraft engaged in their first joint long-range patrol flight exercises – and the violation of territorial airspace over Dokdo by a Russian military aircraft in the process – provides a vivid glimpse at the activities launched by the two sides’ military quasi-alliance in East Asia against the US’ Indo-Pacific strategy to contain China.

The official denial from the Russian government on July 24, after it previously expressed dismay over the encroachment on South Korean airspace shortly after the incident, is being seen as reflecting considerations on the potential divisions the issue could cause in Chinese-Russian military cooperation and the position of Japan regarding Dokdo.

“China and Russia appear to be denying any violation of South Korean airspace to avoid any issues being raised with regard to their exercise, which was carefully planned for a long time as a move to oppose the US’ Indo-Pacific strategy,” said Kim Dong-yub, a professor at the Kyungnam University Institute for Far Eastern Studies.

Violation of KADIZ by Russian and Chinese aircraft
Violation of KADIZ by Russian and Chinese aircraft

“The initial apology to South Korea over the violation of airspace over Dokdo was retracted after the realization that it might come across as openly supporting South Korea’s dominion in the dispute between South Korea and Japan over Dokdo,” he suggested.

As China and Russia persist with bold attempts to unsettle the East Asian security framework in the face of the US’ efforts to increase the number of countries participating in its Indo-Pacific strategy, experts foresaw a heightened risk of similar situations continuing around the Korean Peninsula.

After the US and Europe moved to impose sanctions in response to Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin countered with increased cooperation with China in various areas. Military cooperation has becoming increasingly close, with 300,000 Russian troops and 3,200 Chinese People’s Liberation Army troops taking part in the Vostok 2018 joint military exercise staged last September in Russia’s far east. In an “Indo-Pacific Strategy Report” published on June 1, the US Defense Department identified China and Russia as threatening powers attempting to change the status quo and clearly signaled the military nature of the Indo-Pacific strategy, prompting China and Russia to announce plans to sign a military agreement.

Cho Sung-ryul, a senior research fellow for the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS), explained, “After the publication of the US’ ‘Indo-Pacific Strategy Report’ on June 1 and the reference to ‘seeking common ground between South Korea’s New Southern Policy and the Indo-Pacific strategy’ at the South Korea-US summit on June 30, China has responded very sensitively, and China and Russia have been shifting into a quasi-military alliance against the Indo-pacific strategy.” According to this reading, the situation should be understood in terms of the broader framework of competition among the US, China, and Russia rather than as something targeting South Korea.

Targeting S. Korea-Japan conflict as weakness in US-led Pacific trilateral alliance

The strategic implications of the Chinese and Russian military aircraft’s activities southward path to the South China Sea after encroaching on KADIZ over Dokdo are also substantial. Some analysts suggested they chose Dokdo as a way of targeting South Korea-Japan relations – the weak link in the trilateral alliance with the US amid their deterioration over Japan’s recent retaliatory export controls.

“The Chinese and Russia military aircraft’s choice to enter over Dokdo was intended to deal a blow to the Indo-Pacific strategy by further deepening the fissure between South Korea and Japan, which are already in a state of conflict,” Cho said.

By claiming Dokdo as its own territory, Japan’s response has effectively become a protest against South Korea, which plays direct directly into Beijing and Moscow’s strategic objective.

Others saw the move as targeting a breakthrough in terms of the “first island chain,” where the US and China are battling over expansion in the Pacific. An imaginary military defense line connecting Japan to Taiwan and the Philippines, the first island chain marks the line where the US is attempting to head off China’s Pacific expansion and a key target for China to break through.

“The area around Dokdo connects with the first island chain that China would have to break through to expand into the Pacific, and the significance of the Chinese and Russian air force planes traveling toward the South China Sea after entering airspace near Dokdo is significant in terms of identifying the shortest path from Russia to the South China Sea in the event that the two sides are pitted against the US together during an emergency conflict in the South China Sea,” explained Lee Soo-hyung, a research fellow at INSS.

By Park Min-hee, staff reporter

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